Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (RARE)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-29
$16.10-4.05%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put RARE beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Biotechnology is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 18% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens strong on margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 65% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskRARE’s gene therapy approvals support its growth case, while revenue rose 28% year over year. Q2 FY2026 revenue grew 28% year over year. RARE’s latest quarter beat GAAP earnings estimates. RARE trades at 2.4× sales versus a 9.6× peer median. Its own historical multiple was 3.7× sales. The price reflects less growth than our forecast. A 36% next-quarter miss probability adds risk. The company remains unprofitable, and management is unsteady. Peer multiples imply a price about 73% above where it trades. Our read remains intact, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. RARE is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 22 analysts currently covering RARE (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 13 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for RARE in the last 4 months.
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Compare RARE with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RARE Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Biotechnology — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put RARE next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Approval of FAYUVI supports gene therapy market position.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $16.10
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $16.10.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: FDA review and potential approval of gene therapies UX111 and DTX401
FDA approval directly supports gene therapy revenue growth.
Threatens: FDA review and potential approval of gene therapies UX111 and DTX401
Angelman trial failure impacts regulatory objectives and revenue potential.
Phase 3 setback raises concerns on revenue guidance.
Threatens: FDA review and potential approval of gene therapies UX111 and DTX401
Failed trial undermines potential revenue from gene therapies.
Advances: FDA review and potential approval of gene therapies UX111 and DTX401
FDA approval supports revenue growth and strategic objectives.
Advances: FDA review and potential approval of gene therapies UX111 and DTX401
FDA approval significantly boosts revenue potential for gene therapies.
Advances: FDA review and potential approval of gene therapies UX111 and DTX401
Stock surge reflects positive market reaction to FDA approval.
