Reading RARE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RARE free→Reading RARE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RARE free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 67% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 RARE trades at 4× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $72 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $26–$67. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 66% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.82x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.14 → $-1.14 (-0.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$185.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$454.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,536.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in sector growth can affect Ultragenyx. This can change how it competes.
Confirms one read:Healthcare sector revenue growth speeds up above 10%. This helps Ultragenyx.
Confirms the other:Healthcare sector revenue growth drops below 5%. This shows more challenges ahead.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RARE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As reported below, at its Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “ Annual Meeting ”) on May 14, 2026, the stockholders of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (“ Ultragenyx ” or the “ Company ”) approved the Third Amended and Restated 2023 Incentive Plan (the “ Third A&R 2023 Plan ”). The Third A&R 2023 Plan is described in more detail in Ultragenyx’s 2026…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$26.00 – $67.00 (median $43.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
17 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain Dojolvi revenue guidance for 2026 between $100 million and $110 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has maintained its Dojolvi revenue guidance for 2026 between $100 million and $110 million. However, revenue for 2026-Q1 was $136 million, down from $207.6 million in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards achieving the guidance range.
“The company reaffirms its full year 2026 Dojolvi revenue guidance of $100 million to $110 million.”
“Dojolvi revenue in the range of $100 million to $110 million.”
Implement a strategic restructuring plan with a 10% workforce reduction to reduce expenses.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The strategic restructuring plan includes a 10% workforce reduction to cut costs. Operating income was negative $169 million in 2026-Q1, compared to negative $113.2 million in 2025-Q4, showing limited progress in cost reduction.
“The Company began implementation of a strategic restructuring plan to reduce expenses with a 10% workforce reduction.”
Seek FDA accelerated approval for UX111 gene therapy for Sanfilippo syndrome Type A.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The FDA has accepted the resubmitted Biologics License Application for UX111, with a PDUFA action date set for September 19, 2026. This regulatory milestone is crucial for the company's pipeline, but financials show a net income loss of $185 million in 2026-Q1, indicating ongoing financial challenges.
“The FDA has accepted for review the Company’s resubmitted Biologics License Application for UX111.”
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends will show if Ultragenyx is improving or continuing to struggle.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue growth is over 10% compared to last year. This shows recovery.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue growth is below 0%, showing continued decline.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 (the “ Press Release ”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 The information set forth under
Other Events On April 2, 2026, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”) has accepted for review the Company’s resubmitted Biologics License Application seeking accelerated approval for UX111 (rebisufligene etisparvovec) AAV9 gene therapy as a treatment for patients with Sanfilippo syndrome Type A (MPS IIIA). The FDA set a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) action date of September 19, 2026. Caut…
Other Events. On March 30, 2026, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”) has cleared the Investigational New Drug (“IND”) application for UX016, an investigational small molecule prodrug of sialic acid (“SA”) being evaluated as a substrate replacement therapy for GNE myopathy (“GNEM”). GNEM is a rare, severely debilitating, inherited neuromuscular disorder caused by mutations in the GNE gene that l…
Other Events. On March 12, 2026, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing positive results from its Phase 3 Enh3ance study of DTX301, an investigational AAV8 gene therapy for the treatment of ornithine transcarbamylase (“OTC”) deficiency. At Week 36 in the randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled period of the trial, DTX301-treated patients (n=18) demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful 18% (p=0.018) reduction in 24-hour pl…