Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc (RARE)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.65-1.88%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 25, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	219.67M
EPS	—	-0.829
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	752.26M
EPS	—	-4.6
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	997.04M
EPS	—	-0.647

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dojolvi revenue between $100M and $110M in 2026	Ultragenyx aims for Dojolvi sales between $100M and $110M in 2026.	Intact	Dojolvi revenue falls below $100M in FY26	Revenue: $214M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $100M to $110M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026214,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7c24afda-3073-4d27-8f20-36173fcb3b8b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Dojolvi revenue increased from $18 million in 2026-Q1 to $27 million in 2026-Q2. The company reaffirmed full year 2026 Dojolvi revenue guidance of $100 million to $110 million in both quarters. The trajectory is delivering toward the stated revenue guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 25, 2026
Total revenue growth near 30% in next 12 months	A primary condition in Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=29.5% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 20% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Dojolvi revenue increased from $18 million in 2026-Q1 to $27 million in 2026-Q2. The company reaffirmed full year 2026 Dojolvi revenue guidance of $100 million to $110 million in both quarters. The trajectory is delivering toward the stated revenue guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 25, 2026
Complete 10% workforce reduction to reduce costs	The company is cutting costs with a 10% workforce reduction.	Intact	Failure to implement or complete workforce reduction by end of FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company implemented a 10% workforce reduction starting 2026-Q1 and reaffirmed guidance for flat to slightly down combined R&D and SG&A expenses in 2026 versus 2025. Operating expenses decreased from $305 million in 2026-Q1 to $289 million in 2026-Q2, showing limited progress on cost reduction. Delivery assessment Oct 25, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.65

Unavailable → $-0.65 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.00B

$0.99B → $1.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$990,934,280	2 / 17
2026-07-25	$-0.64	$990,874,347	10 / 13
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$990,934,280	2 / 17
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$990,934,280	2 / 17
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$990,934,280	2 / 17
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$990,934,280	2 / 17
2026-07-30	$-0.64	$990,874,347	9 / 13
2026-07-31	$-0.64	$990,874,347	9 / 13
2026-08-01	$-0.64	$990,874,347	9 / 13
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$990,934,280	2 / 17
2026-08-03	$-0.64	$990,874,347	9 / 13
2026-08-04	$-0.64	$990,874,347	9 / 13
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$990,548,280	2 / 17
2026-08-06	$-0.64	$990,874,347	9 / 13
2026-08-07	$-0.72	$993,808,702	9 / 12
2026-08-08	$-0.72	$993,808,702	9 / 12
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$993,778,290	2 / 17
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$993,778,290	2 / 17
2026-08-12	$-0.72	$993,808,702	9 / 12
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$993,778,290	2 / 17
2026-08-14	$-0.72	$993,808,702	9 / 12
2026-08-15	$-0.72	$993,808,702	9 / 12
2026-08-16	$-0.72	$993,808,702	9 / 12
2026-08-17	$-0.72	$993,808,702	9 / 12
2026-08-18	$-0.72	$993,808,702	9 / 12
2026-08-19	$-0.72	$993,808,702	9 / 12
2026-08-20	$-0.83	$989,756,467	9 / 13
2026-08-21	$-0.62	$1,010,148,430	10 / 13
2026-08-22	$-0.63	$1,011,776,798	11 / 13
2026-08-23	$-0.63	$1,011,776,798	11 / 13
2026-08-24	$-0.63	$1,011,776,798	10 / 14
2026-08-25	$-0.62	$1,013,367,195	10 / 14
2026-08-26	$-0.62	$1,013,367,195	10 / 14
2026-08-27	$-0.62	$1,013,367,195	10 / 14
2026-08-28	$-0.62	$1,013,367,195	10 / 14
2026-08-29	$-0.63	$1,009,278,306	10 / 14
2026-08-30	$-0.63	$1,009,278,306	10 / 14
2026-08-31	$-0.63	$1,009,278,306	10 / 14
2026-09-01	$-0.63	$1,009,278,306	10 / 14
2026-09-02	$-0.63	$1,009,278,306	10 / 14
2026-09-03	$-0.63	$1,009,278,306	10 / 14
2026-09-04	$-0.73	$986,950,235	10 / 14
2026-09-05	$-0.70	$974,852,087	10 / 14
2026-09-06	$-0.70	$974,852,087	10 / 14
2026-09-07	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-08	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-09	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-10	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-11	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-12	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-13	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-14	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-15	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-16	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-17	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-18	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-19	$-0.70	$974,852,087	11 / 14
2026-09-20	$-0.31	$1,003,297,690	11 / 14
2026-09-21	$-0.31	$1,003,297,690	11 / 14
2026-09-22	$-0.31	$1,003,297,690	11 / 14
2026-09-23	$-0.31	$1,003,297,690	11 / 14
2026-09-24	$-0.31	$1,003,297,690	11 / 14
2026-09-25	$-0.31	$1,003,297,690	11 / 14
2026-09-26	$-0.31	$1,003,297,690	10 / 14
2026-09-27	$-0.31	$1,003,297,690	11 / 14
2026-09-28	$-0.31	$1,003,297,690	11 / 14
2026-09-29	$-0.31	$1,003,297,690	11 / 14
2026-09-30	$-0.31	$1,003,297,690	11 / 14
2026-10-01	$-0.31	$1,003,297,690	11 / 14
2026-10-02	$-0.31	$1,003,297,679	11 / 14
2026-10-03	$-0.31	$1,003,297,679	11 / 14
2026-10-04	$-0.31	$1,003,297,679	11 / 14
2026-10-05	$-0.31	$1,003,297,679	11 / 14
2026-10-06	$-0.31	$1,003,297,679	11 / 14
2026-10-07	$-0.31	$1,003,297,679	11 / 14
2026-10-08	$-0.29	$1,005,170,134	11 / 14
2026-10-09	$-0.31	$1,002,181,079	10 / 14
2026-10-10	$-0.31	$1,002,181,079	10 / 14
2026-10-11	$-0.31	$1,002,181,079	11 / 14
2026-10-12	$-0.31	$1,002,181,079	11 / 14
2026-10-13	$-0.31	$1,002,181,079	11 / 14
2026-10-14	$-0.38	$993,901,134	11 / 14
2026-10-15	$-0.64	$993,901,301	11 / 14
2026-10-16	$-0.69	$989,304,505	11 / 14
2026-10-17	$-0.69	$989,304,505	11 / 14
2026-10-18	$-0.69	$989,304,505	11 / 14
2026-10-19	$-0.69	$989,304,505	11 / 14
2026-10-20	$-0.68	$992,205,979	11 / 14
2026-10-21	$-0.68	$992,205,979	11 / 14
2026-10-22	$-0.68	$992,205,979	11 / 14
2026-10-23	$-0.68	$992,205,979	11 / 14
2026-10-24	$-0.65	$997,044,768	11 / 14
2026-10-25	$-0.65	$997,044,768	11 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	18	2
2026-06-01	17	2
2026-07-01	17	2
2026-08-01	18	2
2026-09-01	18	10
2026-10-01	11	11

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 26–Oct 25 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 14

$16.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$8.80$17.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 26, 2026–Oct 25, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dojolvi revenue between $100M and $110M in 2026Revenue: $214M
Total revenue growth near 30% in next 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Complete 10% workforce reduction to reduce costsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-64.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RARE is a loss-making growth business with a healthcare-sector tailwind, rather than an established earnings compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the evidence is mixed on cost control and management is rated volatile.

What's priced into Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc

The valuation evidence points to RARE being cheap versus peers, while the model has low confidence and suggests expectations are below its reference level. The priced-in signal is justified and its fragility tier is low, so the snapshot does not show a major expectations imbalance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue progress supports management’s reaffirmed 2026 guidance: second-quarter total revenue and Dojolvi revenue both rose from the first quarter. Cost progress is less clear, and the company remains loss-making; a 40% estimated miss probability and recent peer misses add risk to the next report.

What Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on delivering the 2026 revenue guidance and making cost reductions more effective. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be unfavorable, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support the healthcare backdrop. Recent M&A agreements and a litigation filing are also relevant events, but the snapshot gives no detail on their business impact.