Reading PRLB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRLB free→Reading PRLB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRLB free→NYSEIndustrialsMetal FabricationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact PRLB's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $78.75. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $79 PRLB trades at 42× p/e — 1.8× the 24× p/e peer median, and above its own 31× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $57 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 38% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.54 → $0.54 (+0.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 65.1% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$293.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,951.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target shows strong demand and supports revenue growth goals.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported at $140 million or more.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue reported below $140 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PRLB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As reported below in Item 5.07, on May 19, 2026, the shareholders of Proto Labs, Inc. (the “Company”) approved an amendment to the Amended and Restated Proto Labs, Inc. 2022 Long-Term Incentive Plan (the "2022 Plan"), which increased the number of shares available for issuance pursuant to awards under the 2022 Plan by an additional 395,000 shares.…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PRLB Protolabs | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | low |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on accelerating revenue growth through strategic customer engagement and innovation.
Enhance the customer experience by removing friction and increasing revenue per customer.
Expand gross margins and capture operating expense leverage through efficiencies.
Focus on achieving revenue growth between 6% and 8% for fiscal year 2026.
Enhance gross profit margins through operational efficiencies and cost management.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth shows strong profits and good operations.
Confirms:Q2 diluted net income per share reported at or above $0.29.
Disproves:Q2 diluted net income per share reported below $0.29.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows that management's plans are working. This can boost investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher margins mean better cost control. This can lead to more profit overall.
Confirms:Gross profit margin increases to above 45% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit margin drops below 40% in Q2.
Why it matters: Protolabs is doing a good job controlling its costs. This helps its operating income grow.
Confirms:Protolabs made more than $9.8 million in operating income.
Disproves:Protolabs made less than $9.8 million in operating income.
Why it matters: Better margins show that costs are managed well. This means the company is more efficient.
Confirms:Non-GAAP gross margin reported above 46.2%.
Disproves:Non-GAAP gross margin reported below 46.2%.
Why it matters: Growing operating income shows good cost control and revenue growth. This can improve performance.
Confirms:Operating income increases to over $10M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income decreases or stays below $9M in Q2.
Why it matters: Any change in guidance shows how management sees future growth and market conditions.
Confirms one read:Management raises revenue growth guidance to over 8% for 2026.
Confirms the other:Management lowers revenue growth guidance to below 6% for 2026.
Why it matters: A better sector could help Protolabs grow. It may show a recovery in industrials.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again, reaching above 10%.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth is slowing down, staying below 5%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, Proto Labs, Inc. issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 6, 2026, Proto Labs, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Michael R. Kenison, Chief Operations Officer, intends to retire effective July 1, 2026. The Company thanks Mr. Kenison for his years of service and wishes him the very best in his retirement. Effective May 18, 2026, Bernardo Parlange was appointed as the Company’s Chief Commercial Offi…
The information contained in Items 2.02 and 9.01 of this report is being “furnished” and not “filed” with the SEC for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under such section. Furthermore, such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified as being incorporated therein by re…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 6, 2026, Proto Labs, Inc. issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated herein by reference.