Reading PODD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PODD free→Reading PODD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PODD free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The stock's valuation hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could lead to a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $147.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $148 PODD trades at 28× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median. Our $130 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $198–$435. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.05x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.44 → $1.45 (+0.6% / 30d). 9 raised, 10 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 44.3% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$138.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$419.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,963.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The correction affects some Omnipod lots. This could hurt customer trust and sales.
Confirms:Insulet says there are no new serious problems with the affected Pods.
Disproves:New reports of serious adverse events related to the affected Pods increase.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PODD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure On May 26, 2026, Insulet Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing a voluntary Medical Device Correction for specific lots of Omnipod® products due to a manufacturing issue identified through ongoing product monitoring. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith. This action is separate from the Company’s March 12, 2026 voluntary Medical Device Correction. The two actions involved different manufacturing processes, both of which were related…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$198.00 – $435.00 (median $250.00) · 25 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PODD Insulet Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | full | elevated |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
24 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Insulet aims to increase its revenue growth outlook, reflecting progress in its strategic initiatives.
Insulet aims to maintain its gross margin above 71% to ensure profitability.
Insulet has expanded its share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in the core U.S. market for Insulet's main product.
Confirms:U.S. Omnipod revenue growth reported below 18% year over year.
Disproves:U.S. Omnipod revenue growth meets or exceeds 20%.
Why it matters: This would show a drop in overall business activity.
Confirms:Total revenue growth reported below 20% year over year.
Disproves:Total revenue growth meets or exceeds 22%.
Why it matters: Expanding the share buyback program may show trust in the company's future.
Confirms:Insulet says it will increase the share repurchase program.
Disproves:Insulet stops or cuts back the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows recovery from recent earnings loss. It also supports management's focus.
Confirms:Management increases the revenue growth outlook for Q2. This is above the current guidance.
Disproves:Revenue growth outlook remains unchanged or worsens from current guidance.
Why it matters: Growing the share repurchase program shows trust in the company's future. It may help stock price.
Confirms:Management says they will grow the share buyback program.
Disproves:No updates or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Keeping a gross margin over 71% is important. This helps with profits as costs rise.
Confirms:Gross margin stays above 71% in the next financial reports.
Disproves:Gross margin falls below 71% in upcoming financial reports.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue growth affects how investors feel. It also impacts stock performance.
Confirms:Insulet reports Q2 2026 revenue growth in the range of 20% to 22% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth reported below 20% year over year.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Regulation FD Disclosure On March 12, 2026, Insulet Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding a voluntary medical device correction. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. While it is too early to ascertain the exact cost of the voluntary medical device correction, the Company currently expects to incur up to $40 million of costs associated with this event, all in 2026. These costs will be excluded from adjusted results. Accordingly, Insulet is n…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 27, 2026, Insulet Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a severance agreement and release (the “Severance Agreement”) with Ana M. Chadwick, the Company’s former Chief Financial Officer. The Severance Agreement does not provide for any material compensation or benefits terms that differ from, or are in addition to, those previously dis…
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant On December 15, 2025, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company notified GT, the Company’s then independent registered public accounting firm, that the Audit Committee selected PwC as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the Company’s fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. GT was previously engaged to audit the Company’s consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. The…