Insulet Corporation (PODD)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$141.10+1.68%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Insulet Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.71 → 7.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
No major product recalls or safety issues	A primary condition in Insulet Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is No voluntary medical device corrections or recalls.	Under Pressure	New major product recall or safety correction announced	Recall concerns reported vs No recalls target Moody's revised Insulet's outlook citing product recall concerns, indicating a material safety event or risk. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating profit margin near 17.4% in 2025	Profit margin is near 17%.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 16% in FY25	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows about 23% in 2026	Insulet grows revenue about 23% a year.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 22% in FY26	Revenue growth: 23.51% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 22% to 24% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202623.509475 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 876fea9b-01ed-4f98-a4af-40dffc49c392. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $569.0M in 2025-Q1 to $801.7M in 2026-Q2, a 41% increase, with constant currency growth of 22.7% in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently raised revenue growth outlooks and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Repurchase at least 1.25 million shares	A supporting condition in Insulet Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.25 million shares repurchased.	Intact	Repurchases drop below 1 million shares in next year	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.70

$8.05 → $7.70 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.75B

$3.93B → $3.75B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.05	$3,926,753,370	22 / 24
2026-07-25	$8.05	$3,935,679,388	14 / 19
2026-07-26	$8.05	$3,926,753,370	22 / 24
2026-07-27	$8.05	$3,935,679,388	14 / 19
2026-07-28	$8.05	$3,935,679,388	14 / 19
2026-07-29	$8.05	$3,935,465,670	14 / 19
2026-07-30	$8.05	$3,926,905,250	23 / 25
2026-07-31	$8.05	$3,926,905,250	23 / 25
2026-08-01	$8.05	$3,935,465,670	14 / 19
2026-08-02	$8.05	$3,926,905,250	23 / 25
2026-08-03	$8.05	$3,926,905,250	23 / 25
2026-08-04	$8.05	$3,926,905,250	23 / 25
2026-08-05	$8.05	$3,935,465,670	14 / 19
2026-08-06	$8.05	$3,935,465,670	14 / 19
2026-08-07	$7.77	$3,789,934,851	15 / 19
2026-08-08	$7.77	$3,789,934,851	15 / 19
2026-08-09	$7.77	$3,789,934,851	15 / 19
2026-08-10	$7.73	$3,760,367,730	23 / 25
2026-08-12	$7.73	$3,753,649,530	23 / 25
2026-08-13	$7.73	$3,753,649,530	23 / 25
2026-08-14	$7.77	$3,789,934,851	15 / 19
2026-08-15	$7.77	$3,789,934,851	15 / 19
2026-08-16	$7.77	$3,789,934,851	15 / 19
2026-08-17	$7.77	$3,789,934,851	15 / 19
2026-08-18	$7.77	$3,789,934,851	15 / 19
2026-08-19	$7.77	$3,789,934,851	15 / 19
2026-08-20	$7.72	$3,763,667,354	15 / 19
2026-08-21	$7.72	$3,763,667,354	15 / 19
2026-08-22	$7.72	$3,763,667,354	15 / 19
2026-08-23	$7.72	$3,763,667,354	15 / 19
2026-08-24	$7.72	$3,763,667,354	15 / 19
2026-08-25	$7.72	$3,763,667,354	15 / 19
2026-08-26	$7.72	$3,763,667,354	15 / 19
2026-08-27	$7.72	$3,763,667,354	15 / 19
2026-08-28	$7.72	$3,763,667,354	15 / 19
2026-08-29	$7.72	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-08-30	$7.72	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-08-31	$7.72	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-09-01	$7.72	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-09-02	$7.72	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-09-03	$7.71	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-09-04	$7.71	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-09-05	$7.71	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-09-06	$7.71	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-09-07	$7.71	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-09-08	$7.71	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-09-09	$7.71	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-09-10	$7.71	$3,763,673,700	15 / 19
2026-09-11	$7.71	$3,763,698,700	15 / 19
2026-09-12	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-13	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-14	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-15	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-16	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-17	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-18	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-19	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-20	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-21	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-22	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-23	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-24	$7.71	$3,756,146,470	15 / 19
2026-09-25	$7.71	$3,751,642,122	15 / 19
2026-09-26	$7.71	$3,751,642,122	15 / 19
2026-09-27	$7.71	$3,751,635,500	15 / 19
2026-09-28	$7.71	$3,751,635,500	15 / 19
2026-09-29	$7.71	$3,751,635,500	15 / 19
2026-09-30	$7.71	$3,751,635,500	15 / 19
2026-10-01	$7.72	$3,752,852,892	15 / 19
2026-10-02	$7.72	$3,752,852,892	15 / 19
2026-10-03	$7.72	$3,752,852,892	15 / 19
2026-10-04	$7.72	$3,752,852,892	15 / 19
2026-10-05	$7.72	$3,752,852,892	15 / 19
2026-10-06	$7.71	$3,750,026,805	15 / 19
2026-10-07	$7.71	$3,750,026,805	15 / 19
2026-10-08	$7.71	$3,750,026,805	15 / 19
2026-10-09	$7.71	$3,750,026,805	15 / 19
2026-10-10	$7.71	$3,750,026,805	15 / 19
2026-10-11	$7.70	$3,748,083,326	15 / 19
2026-10-12	$7.70	$3,748,083,326	15 / 19
2026-10-13	$7.70	$3,745,822,457	15 / 19
2026-10-14	$7.70	$3,745,822,457	15 / 19
2026-10-15	$7.70	$3,745,822,457	15 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	22	3	1
2026-06-01	22	3	0
2026-07-01	23	4	0
2026-08-01	21	10	0
2026-09-01	15	10	0
2026-10-01	15	11	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 12

$190.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 6 · prior May 7

$198.00 → $150.00-24.2%

$0$108.90$217.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

No major product recalls or safety issuesPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating profit margin near 17.4% in 2025Published status: Broken
Revenue grows about 23% in 2026Published status: Broken
Repurchase at least 1.25 million sharesRequired source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Insulet Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PODD represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and margin stability. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong financial results but facing some volatility in management execution.

What's priced into Insulet Corporation

The market seems to price in a neutral valuation, with PODD appearing cheap compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully reflect the company's recent strong performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management has consistently raised revenue growth outlooks and maintained gross margins above 71%. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings estimates, although the miss probability is relatively low.

What Insulet Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on growth priorities. Additionally, broader sector performance and economic indicators, such as the jobs report, will influence PODD's trajectory.