Reading PHAT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PHAT free→Reading PHAT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PHAT free→
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, PHAT is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues due to weak financials or fragile earnings quality. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 PHAT trades at 4× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 61% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.53x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.08 → $-0.10 (-21.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 90% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$247.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$637.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,889.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PHAT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securitie…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PHAT Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Phathom aims to achieve operating profitability, excluding stock-based compensation, starting in Q3 2026 and for the full year.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income improved from -$59.28M in 2025-Q4 to -$15.48M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the goal of achieving operating profitability by Q3 2026. The trajectory shows delivering progress.
“Operating profitability, excluding stock-based compensation, expected beginning in the third quarter 2026.”
“Operating profitability, excluding stock-based compensation, expected beginning in the third quarter 2026.”
Phathom is maintaining its full year 2026 financial guidance for net revenues between $320 million and $345 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $49.5M in 2025-Q3 to $58.3M in 2026-Q1, supporting the guidance range of $320-$345M for 2026. The trajectory is delivering towards the stated revenue target.
Phathom aims to achieve a gross margin of approximately 80% for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit increased from $43.31M in 2025-Q3 to $46.31M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards achieving the 80% gross margin target for 2026. The trajectory shows delivering progress.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 o…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 7, 2026, Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing certain preliminary unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Pursuant to the rules and regulations of the SEC, the information provided in this
Other Events. On January 7, 2026, Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“Phathom” or the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Guggenheim Securities, LLC and Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), relating to the issuance and sale of (i) 6,875,000 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), at an offering price t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 30, 2025, Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Sec…
“Phathom is maintaining its full year 2026 financial guidance: Net revenues of $320–$345 million.”
“For the full year 2026, Phathom is providing the following financial guidance: Net revenues of $320–$345 million.”
“Gross margin of approximately 80% for the full year 2026.”
“Gross margin of approximately 80% for the full year 2026.”