Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (PHAT)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$5.74-18.12%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	97.82M
EPS	—	-0.034
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$310M–$325M	315.24M
EPS	—	-0.721
Gross margin	About 80%	—
Operating expenses	$235M–$245Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	489.37M
EPS	—	0.717

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin near 80% in 2026	Gross margin is expected near 80% for the year.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 75% in FY26	Gross margin: 79.68% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Gross margin ~80% in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 30, 202679.675256 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a068d89c-3190-4936-b600-f989bd1e0dac. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin approximated 79.4% in 2026-Q1 and 79.7% in 2026-Q2, close to the 80% target. Management maintained guidance for approximately 80% gross margin for full year 2026. The trajectory is delivering consistent gross margin near the stated goal. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to profitability by Q3 2026	The company showed progress with operating income improving from -$59M to -$15M.	Under Pressure	Operating income remains below $0 past Q3 2026	Operating income: $-3.965M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $0 by Q3 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 2026-3,965,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a068d89c-3190-4936-b600-f989bd1e0dac. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year 2026 revenue between $320M and $345M	A primary condition in Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue between $320M and $345M in FY26.	Broken	Revenue falls below $320M in FY26	Revenue: $74.274M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue between $320M and $345M in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 30, 202674,274,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a068d89c-3190-4936-b600-f989bd1e0dac. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $58.3 million in 2026-Q1 to $74.3 million in 2026-Q2, an 88% increase year-over-year compared to 2025-Q2. Management maintained full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $320–$345 million across these quarters. The trajectory is delivering strong revenue growth consistent with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.49B

$0.54B → $0.49B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$539,954,000	4 / 9
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$539,954,000	4 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$539,954,000	4 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$539,954,000	4 / 9
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$539,954,000	4 / 9
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$539,954,000	4 / 9
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$539,965,111	3 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$529,176,560	4 / 9
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$498,943,556	3 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$494,341,444	3 / 7
2026-08-03	$1.20	$494,341,440	5 / 9
2026-08-04	$1.20	$494,341,440	5 / 9
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$494,341,440	4 / 9
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$494,341,444	3 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$494,341,444	3 / 7
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$494,341,440	4 / 9
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$494,341,444	3 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$494,341,440	4 / 9
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$494,341,440	4 / 9
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$494,341,444	3 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$494,341,444	3 / 7
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$494,341,444	3 / 7
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$494,341,444	3 / 7
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$494,341,444	3 / 7
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$494,341,444	3 / 7
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$494,341,444	3 / 7
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$494,341,444	4 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$495,149,700	4 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$495,307,300	4 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$495,307,300	4 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$495,307,300	4 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$495,307,300	4 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$495,307,300	4 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$495,307,300	4 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$495,307,300	4 / 7
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$495,307,300	4 / 7
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$495,307,300	4 / 7
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$495,307,300	4 / 7
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$495,307,300	4 / 7
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$493,807,300	4 / 7
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$493,807,300	4 / 7
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$493,807,300	4 / 7
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$493,806,360	4 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$489,366,360	4 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$489,366,360	4 / 7
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$489,366,360	4 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	1
2026-06-01	9	1
2026-07-01	10	1
2026-08-01	10	1
2026-09-01	10	2
2026-10-01	10	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Craig-HallumOct 21 · prior Jul 31

$20.00 → $15.00-25.0%

JefferiesOct 14

$16.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$11.00$22.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin near 80% in 2026Gross margin: 79.68%
Operating income improves to profitability by Q3 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Full year 2026 revenue between $320M and $345MPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-68.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a profitable one. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance holding in the top half of its industry, but management execution still needs to turn growth into operating profitability.

What's priced into Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

The evidence describes PHAT as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 22% premium to peers and low confidence in that valuation measure. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment is justified with no fragility flags, but the snapshot does not explain the market’s specific expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and gross margins are tracking management’s 2026 guidance: Q2 revenue rose 88% year over year, and gross margin was near 80%. Operating expenses have been controlled, but the goal of operating profitability excluding stock-based compensation remains a mixed execution item; the evidence also notes a lowered outlook as of July 30 and litigation filings on September 29 and October 23.

What Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc. hinges on

The key company-specific test is whether PHAT maintains its revenue and margin goals and delivers operating profitability excluding stock-based compensation. A guidance increase after the prior lowering would be a favorable signal, while weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical names; continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.