Reading PFGC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PFGC free→Reading PFGC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PFGC free→NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with PFGC trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If PFGC reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that could signal a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $104.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $104 the market pays 27× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $86 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 21% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.60 → $1.60 (+0.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 10 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$120.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$242.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,547.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Tightening guidance shows that management believes revenue will grow. It shows strong demand.
Confirms:Management confirms Q4 revenue guidance within the range of $67.7B-$68.0B.
Disproves:Management lowers Q4 revenue guidance to below $67.7B.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PFGC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PFGC Performance Food Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | full | moderate |
SYY Sysco | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | moderate |
USFD US Foods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CHEF Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ANDE The Andersons, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim to achieve net sales in the range of $67.7 billion to $68.0 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Target Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.9 billion to $1.93 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Continue to focus on maintaining growth in gross profit.
Why it matters: Keeping gross profit growth shows good operations. It also shows strong demand.
Confirms:Gross profit growth reported at or above previous levels.
Disproves:Gross profit growth declines from previous levels.
Why it matters: Important economic data can change how much people spend and what food services need.
Confirms one read:Consumer Price Index shows inflation below 3% year over year.
Confirms the other:Consumer Price Index shows inflation above 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth in the Consumer Staples sector may help Performance Food Group.
Confirms:Consumer Staples revenue growth picks up to above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Consumer Staples revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in the CPI can impact consumer spending and food costs, affecting PFGC's revenue.
Confirms one read:CPI increases more than 0.3% month over month.
Confirms the other:CPI decreases or remains flat month over month.
Why it matters: A decline signals weakening demand in the foodservice sector. It could impact overall revenue.
Confirms:Organic case volume growth reported below 3.0% for the next quarter.
Disproves:Organic case volume growth remains above 3.0% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing. It can impact investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good cost management. It helps with making more money.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA reported within the range of $1.9B-$1.93B for FY 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.9B for FY 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 19, 2026, Performance Food Group, Inc., a Colorado corporation (the “ Issuer ”) and an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Performance Food Group Company (the “ Company ”), issued and sold $1.06 billion aggregate principal amount of its 5.625% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “ Notes ”), which mature on March 1, 2034, pursuant to an indenture, dated as of February 19, 2026 (the “ Indenture ”), among the Issuer, PFGC, Inc., a Delaware corporati…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
OTHER EVENTS. On February 9, 2026, Performance Food Group Company issued a press release to announce that its indirect wholly-owned subsidiary, Performance Food Group, Inc., had priced an offering of $1.06 billion in aggregate principal amount of 5.625% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “Notes”). A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The Notes will be offered only to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in…