Reading HFFG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HFFG free→Reading HFFG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HFFG free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.80 HFFG trades at 10× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $2.88 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.94x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.02 → $-0.03 (-25.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$242.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$565.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,173.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: New M&A activity may mean growth and expansion. This can affect future revenue.
Confirms:Management announces a new M&A deal or partnership.
Disproves:No M&A updates or activity reported in the next earnings call.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HFFG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitieve Agreement. On June 11, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of HF Foods Group Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), authorized and declared a dividend distribution of one right (each, a “Right”) for each outstanding share of common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), of the Company to stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 22, 2026 (the “Record Date”). Each Right entitles the registered holder to purchase…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HFFG HF Foods Group, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
SYY Sysco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
USFD US Foods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFGC Performance Food Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | full | moderate |
CHEF Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on operational efficiency and capturing organic growth through network optimization and cross-selling.
Evaluate attractive M&A opportunities to expand geographical footprint.
Authorized and declared a dividend distribution of one right for each outstanding share of common stock.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much consumers are spending. This affects HF Foods' performance.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 1.5% month over month on June 17, 2026.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline or growth below 0.5% month over month on June 17, 2026.
Why it matters: Better organic growth means the company is gaining market share. It also shows better operations.
Confirms:Q2 organic growth rate exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 organic growth rate stays below 2% year over year.
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. The information included in
of this Current Report (including Exhibit 99.1) is deemed to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall such information be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such fi…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 30, 2026, HF Foods Group Inc. (“HF Foods” or the “Company”), its wholly-owned subsidiary, B&R Global Holdings, Inc. (“B&R Global”), and certain of the wholly-owned subsidiaries and affiliates of the Company (collectively with the Company, the “Borrowers”), as borrowers, and certain material subsidiaries of the Company as guarantors, entered into a Joinder and Amendment No. 5 (the “Fifth Amendment”) to the Third Amended and Restated Credit A…
of this Current Report (including Exhibit 99.1) is deemed to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall such information be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such fi…