Reading AVO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVO free→Reading AVO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVO free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, with AVO trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If AVO cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 AVO trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $10 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.54x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.13 (-34.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 42.7% above current price.
3 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$182.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$343.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,409.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Successful buybacks can boost share value and show management confidence. Investors watch for execution.
Confirms:The company announces completion of at least $50M in stock repurchases within the next year.
Disproves:The company fails to execute any buybacks or delays the program.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 8, 2026, Mission Produce, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including the related information set forth in the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein, is being “furnished” and shall not be deem…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVO Mission Produce, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 9 of 100 | full | moderate |
SYY Sysco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
USFD US Foods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFGC Performance Food Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | full | moderate |
CHEF Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has announced a new stock repurchase program allowing up to $100 million in buybacks over the next 36 months.
Focus on improving operating income, which has shown volatility over recent quarters.
The company aims to enhance cash flow from operations, which has been negative in recent quarters.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company is managing costs well. This can attract investors.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by at least 10% in the next quarterly report.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company can invest and pay debts. This is key for long-term health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by at least 15% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or stays the same compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Sector growth can impact Mission Produce's performance. A strong sector can lift all players.
Confirms one read:Consumer staples revenue growth speeds up above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Consumer staples revenue growth remains below 3% year over year.
Merger Consideration; Effect on Capital Stock Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, upon the execution, acknowledgement, delivery and filing of the certificate of merger with respect to the First Merger with the Office of the Secretary of State of California as provided under the CCC and the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware as provided under the DGCL (the “ First Effective Time ”), each share of common stock, par value $0.001 per share of Calavo (“ Calavo Common Stock ”) issued and out…
Other Events The press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference also contains an announcement that on June 3, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors authorized a stock repurchase program which permits the Company to repurchase up to $100 million of the Company’s common stock over the next 36 months, effective June 3, 2026 (the “2026 Program”). The 2026 Program replaces the Company’s previous common stock repurchase program adopted in September 2023, which would ha…
by reference. Appointment of Director In connection with the closing of the Mergers, effective as of the Closing Date, Kathleen Holmgren was appointed to the Board of Directors of the Company (the “ Board ”). Ms. Holmgren was appointed to fill a newly created seat on the Board and will serve as a Class III director, with a term expiring at the Company’s 2029 annual meeting of stockholders. Ms. Holmgren, 68, served as vice-chair of the Board of Directors and chair of the Compensation Committee…
Other Events. On May 22, 2026, Mission Produce, Inc. (“Mission Produce”) and Calavo Growers, Inc. (“Calavo”) issued a joint press release announcing that antitrust clearance has been obtained from Mexico’s Federal Economic Competition Commission (Comisión Federal de Competencia Económica, or “COFECE”) for the previously announced pending acquisition of Calavo by Mission Produce (the “Mergers”), and that, subject to continued satisfaction of all conditions, Mission Produce and Calavo currently…