Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.69-1.10%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mission Produce, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	434.56M
EPS	—	0.324
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	346.1M
EPS	—	0.093
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.45B
EPS	—	0.636
Capital expenditure	About $45M	—
EBITDA	$84M–$88Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.75B
EPS	—	0.796

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execution of $100M stock repurchase program	It has a $100M stock buyback program to support the share price.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board authorized a $100 million stock repurchase program in 2026-Q2, replacing the prior program. The company repurchased 641,342 shares in Q3 and 290,994 shares in Q4 to date, demonstrating active execution. The trajectory is delivering on the repurchase authorization. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Positive cash flow from operations	Cash flow and profits should improve from recent losses.	Improving	Cash flow from operations remains negative over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $-4.9M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$0 cash flow from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 8, 2026-4,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves from negative $7M in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Mission Produce, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=$0 operating income.	Improving	Operating income remains negative over next 4 quarters	Operating income: $500,000 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$0 operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 8, 2026500,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 64ad36f3-9593-4621-9a33-987e7f726be4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income declined sharply from $21.0 million in 2025-Q3 to $0.5 million in 2026-Q3, with gross margin decreasing 270 basis points to 9.9%. Management acknowledges margin compression due to supply-demand mismatch in 2026-Q2 but notes recovering pricing and margins. The trajectory shows limited progress with margin recovery underway. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth of about 25% next fiscal year	Mission Produce grows revenue about 25% next year after acquiring Calavo.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 15% next fiscal year	Revenue growth: 25.8% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=25% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 8, 202625.803746 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 64ad36f3-9593-4621-9a33-987e7f726be4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-10-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	0	0
2026-06-01	4	0	0
2026-07-01	4	0	0
2026-08-01	4	0	0
2026-09-01	4	0	0
2026-10-01	5	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Banco SantanderOct 21

$15.60New observation · no comparable prior

$0$8.58$17.16

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execution of $100M stock repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Positive cash flow from operationsCash from operations: $-4.9M
Operating income improves from negative $7M in Q2 2026Operating income: $500,000
Revenue growth of about 25% next fiscal yearRevenue growth: 25.8%

Next proof point

Dec 17, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mission Produce, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AVO is an execution-led food business thesis, with the Calavo integration as a central driver. The thesis is in a watch state: company momentum improved, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort and confidence is medium.

What's priced into Mission Produce, Inc.

AVO is expensive versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions are demanding relative to the evidence. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not point to a clear disconnect in expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven: recent performance is neutral, and a recent earnings beat sits alongside a strategy and product update involving exit or disposal costs. Over the multi-year view, management is progressing integration work and raised annualized synergy targets to more than $30 million, while capital spending remains aligned with guidance; full synergy realization is targeted within 18 months.

What Mission Produce, Inc. hinges on

The key swing factor is whether AVO continues integrating Calavo and captures the planned synergies without cutting guidance. Weaker jobs data could add pressure to cyclical businesses, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.