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Track MTEX free→Mannatech Inc (MTEX)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$5.43-3.81%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is robust. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 83% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Watch for signals from sector bellwethers like SYY, USFD, and PFGC. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Food Distribution
- Market cap
- $10.89M
- Employees
- 114,000
- IPO date
- 1998-04-10
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$32.55consensus
Range $23.34 – $41.77
vs price: -83% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$36.93consensus
Range $36.93 – $36.93
vs price: -85% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $5.63 MTEX trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $33 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.1x
peer 0.9x · own history —
Premium
0.1x peer
Growth the price needs
-83%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$33.09
range $23.51 – $42.68
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 83% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
36th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
73rd pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar.
Management & capital allocation
neutral6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme private-label/value.headwind-9.8%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$232.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$907.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,124.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth trends in the Consumer Staples sector
Why it matters: Mannatech's growth may be affected by overall sector trends. Slowing growth could impact performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 4% each year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to slow below 4% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MTEX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SYY, USFD, and PFGC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting MTEX and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MTEX and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit MTEX and other Consumer Staples names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SYY, USFD, and PFGC start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping MTEX and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If MTEX misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2025-06-30 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-089d agoItem 5.02
CFO — Yasir Haider: Yasir Haider was promoted to CFO, replacing James Clavijo.
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.