Reading MTEX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTEX free→Reading MTEX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTEX free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is robust. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 83% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Watch for signals from sector bellwethers like SYY, USFD, and PFGC. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.63 MTEX trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $33 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 83% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$232.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$907.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,124.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Mannatech's growth may be affected by overall sector trends. Slowing growth could impact performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 4% each year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to slow below 4% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MTEX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
CFO — Yasir Haider: Yasir Haider was promoted to CFO, replacing James Clavijo.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MTEX Mannatech Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
SYY Sysco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
USFD US Foods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFGC Performance Food Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | full | moderate |
CHEF Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change how the company manages finances. This could affect future growth.
Confirms one read:The company shares a new financial plan under the new CFO.
Confirms the other:No updates on financial plans are shared after the CFO change.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can signal consumer spending trends. This affects Mannatech's sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, Mannatech, Incorporated issued a press release announcing financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On April 20, 2026, Mannatech, Incorporated (the “Company”) received written notification (the “Notice”) from the Listing Qualifications Department of the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) notifying the Company that it is not in compliance with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5550(b)(1) (the “Rule”), which requires listed companies on the Nasdaq Capital Market to maintain minimum stockholders’ equity of $…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 15, 2026, Mannatech, Incorporated issued a press release announcing financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Following a discussion and mutual agreement between Mannatech, Incorporated (the "Company") and James Clavijo, the Company's Chief Financial Officer ("CFO"), on March 19, 2026, the "Company formally notified James Clavijo that it would not be renewing his employment agreement, which will expire on June 30, 2026. Under the terms of the agreement, Mr…