Performance Food Group (PFGC)

NYSEConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$94.71-3.25%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Performance Food Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.77 → 6.73 EPS · FY ending Jun 27, 2028 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	$17.9B–$18.1B	—
FY 2027 · Q2
Revenue	—	17.39B
EPS	—	1.212
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$72.5B–$73B	72.84B
EPS	—	5.638
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	74.8B
EPS	—	6.728

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA near $1.9B-$1.93B in FY 2026	Profit margins stay near $1.9 billion adjusted EBITDA.	Intact	adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.9B in FY 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage debt and share buybacks prudently	A supporting condition in Performance Food Group's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable debt levels and continue buybacks without harming cash flow.	Intact	Debt or buybacks impair cash flow or credit metrics materially	Debt paydown & buyback execution vs stable debt/buyback target Moody's upgraded notes on debt paydown; Q4 highlights record free cash flow; $500M buyback program advancing. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit grows to about $1.94B by Q3 2026	The company keeps growing gross profit, up $116 million from last year.	Intact	gross profit falls below $1.82B in Q3 2026	Gross profit: $2.169B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.94B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 20262,168,800,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit grew 9.1% to $8.1 billion in fiscal 2026 driven by case volume growth, mix shifts, acquisitions, and vendor incentives. Management is delivering sustained gross profit growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to $67.7B-$68.0B in FY 2026	A primary condition in Performance Food Group's published investment case. The stated target is ~$67.85B.	Intact	revenue falls below $67.7B in FY 2026	Revenue: $18.029B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$67.85B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 202618,028,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$6.73

$7.00 → $6.73 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$74.80B

$75.35B → $74.80B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-12	$7.00	$75,349,853,891	5 / 11
2026-08-13	$7.00	$75,349,853,891	5 / 11
2026-08-14	$7.00	$75,349,853,891	5 / 11
2026-08-15	$7.00	$75,349,853,891	5 / 11
2026-08-16	$7.00	$75,349,853,891	5 / 11
2026-08-17	$7.00	$75,349,853,891	5 / 11
2026-08-18	$7.00	$75,349,853,891	9 / 12
2026-08-19	$7.00	$75,349,853,891	9 / 12
2026-08-20	$6.80	$75,089,461,304	7 / 10
2026-08-21	$6.80	$75,089,461,304	7 / 10
2026-08-22	$6.80	$75,089,461,304	7 / 10
2026-08-23	$6.80	$75,089,461,304	7 / 10
2026-08-24	$6.80	$75,089,461,304	7 / 10
2026-08-25	$6.80	$75,089,461,304	7 / 10
2026-08-26	$6.80	$75,089,461,304	7 / 10
2026-08-27	$6.80	$75,089,461,304	7 / 10
2026-08-28	$6.80	$75,089,461,304	7 / 10
2026-08-29	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-08-30	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-08-31	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-09-01	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-09-02	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-09-03	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-09-04	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-09-05	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-09-06	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-09-07	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-09-08	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-09-09	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-09-10	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-09-11	$6.80	$75,149,827,435	7 / 10
2026-09-12	$6.79	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-13	$6.79	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-14	$6.79	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-15	$6.79	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-16	$6.79	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-17	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-18	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-19	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-20	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-21	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-22	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-23	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-24	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-25	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 10
2026-09-26	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$6.77	$75,177,916,245	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$6.77	$74,809,432,950	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$6.77	$74,809,432,950	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$6.77	$74,809,432,950	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$6.77	$74,799,210,188	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$6.77	$74,799,210,188	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$6.77	$74,799,210,188	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$6.77	$74,799,210,188	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$6.77	$74,799,210,188	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$6.75	$74,799,254,969	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$6.74	$74,797,427,794	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$6.73	$74,797,448,441	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$6.73	$74,797,441,308	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	1	0
2026-06-01	12	1	1
2026-07-01	13	1	1
2026-08-01	12	1	1
2026-09-01	12	1	2
2026-10-01	11	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Jul 15

$131.00 → $136.00+3.8%

$0$74.80$149.60

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA near $1.9B-$1.93B in FY 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross profit grows to about $1.94B by Q3 2026Gross profit: $2.169B
Revenue grows to $67.7B-$68.0B in FY 2026Revenue: $18.029B

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Performance Food Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a food distribution business with a growth and execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, though earnings quality and management are rated neutral.

What's priced into Performance Food Group

PFGC is valued at a 28% premium to peers, and the valuation assessment is expensive. The priced-in signal is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not show that expectations are unusually vulnerable beyond weak execution quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

In fiscal 2026, sales grew 7.2%, adjusted EBITDA grew 9.2%, and gross profit grew 9.1%; management guides for further sales and adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal 2027. Progress is mixed on profitability and gross profit priorities, and recent earnings misses make the next guidance update a near-term risk.

What Performance Food Group hinges on

The key swing factor is whether management maintains its fiscal 2027 guidance and delivers against its growth priorities. Further weakening in jobs data could raise recession concerns for cyclical businesses, while strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would be a supportive signal.