Reading PCVX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PCVX free→Reading PCVX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PCVX free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, while management's recent track record has been steady and capital-friendly. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. If PCVX cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative, while improvements in sector trends from bellwethers could provide some support. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $49.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.26x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.85 → $-2.10 (-13.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$189.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$363.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,795.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show if Vaxcyte can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth turning positive year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued revenue decline or losses.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PCVX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Item 9.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PCVX Vaxcyte, Inc. | — | — | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Vaxcyte plans to initiate the VAX-31 Adult Pivotal, Non-Inferiority Study in December 2025 with topline data expected in 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. The company plans to initiate the VAX-31 Adult Pivotal Study in December 2025 with topline data expected in 2026. Financials show a net income of $519.35M in 2025-Q4, indicating financial capacity to support this initiative. However, no specific progress on this study was reported in the latest quarter.
“Company expects to initiate VAX-31 Adult Pivotal, Non-Inferiority Study in December 2025 with topline data in 2026.”
Vaxcyte expects the modified study to proceed by the end of Q3 2025 with topline data expected by the end of H1 2027.
Newly stated in 2025-Q2. The company plans to proceed with the modified study by the end of Q3 2025, with topline data expected by H1 2027. Financials show a net income of $519.35M in 2025-Q4, suggesting financial capability to support this timeline. No further updates on this study were provided in the latest quarter.
“We expect the modified study to proceed by the end of the third quarter of this year with topline data expected by the end of the first half of 2027.”
Why it matters: If health care sector growth speeds up, it could help Vaxcyte's performance. This would signal a better environment.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
and Item 9.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Other Events. Sales Agreement On February 24, 2026, Vaxcyte, Inc. (“ Vaxcyte ”) entered into a sales agreement (the “ Sales Agreement ”) with Leerink Partners LLC (the “ Placement Agent ”), pursuant to which the Company may sell shares of its common stock, par value $0.001 per share (“ Common Stock ”), having an aggregate offering price of up to $500,000,000 (the “ Shares ”), from time to time through the Placement Agent. The Shares are registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (…
Other Events Underwriting Agreement On January 29, 2026, Vaxcyte, Inc. (“ Vaxcyte ”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with BofA Securities, Inc., Jefferies LLC, Leerink Partners LLC and Evercore Group L.L.C. as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “ Underwriters ”), relating to the issuance and sale (the “ Offering ”) of 11,000,000 shares of its common stock, par value $0.001 per share, at a price to the public of…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Amendments to Executive Change in Control and Severance Agreements On December 18, 2025, Vaxcyte, Inc. (the “Company”) amended existing Executive Change in Control and Severance Agreements (the “Severance Agreements”) with (i) Grant Pickering, Chief Executive Officer and member of the Company’s Board of Directors, dated as of June 12, 2020, (ii) An…