Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$60.43-3.85%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Vaxcyte, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	12.5M
EPS	—	-2.016
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	25M
EPS	—	-8.228
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	87.15M
EPS	—	-6.498

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce losses and move toward positive earnings	A primary condition in Vaxcyte, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -8.48 in 2026 to less negative in 2027.	Intact	EPS loss worsens or stays flat beyond 2027	Diluted EPS: $-1.97 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows from -8.48 in 2026 to less negative in 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-1.97 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1f673ad5-3fe9-4d89-ad53-644b261878d6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful execution of manufacturing agreement with Thermo Fisher	The company has a new manufacturing deal with Thermo Fisher.	Intact	Manufacturing delays or failure to meet milestones in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate initial vaccine revenue	A primary condition in Vaxcyte, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue reaches at least $87 million in 2027.	Intact	Revenue fails to grow or remains near zero by 2027	Revenue: $0 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue reaches at least $87 million in 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete Phase 3 VAX-31 trial enrollment and progress to next steps	Enrollment for the Phase 3 VAX-31 trial is complete.	Intact	Trial enrollment or advancement stalls or reverses in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-6.50

$-6.69 → $-6.50 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.09B

$0.09B → $0.09B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-6.69	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-07-25	$-7.42	$87,145,780	7 / 9
2026-07-26	$-7.42	$87,145,780	7 / 9
2026-07-27	$-7.42	$87,145,780	7 / 9
2026-07-28	$-7.42	$87,145,780	7 / 9
2026-07-29	$-7.42	$87,145,780	7 / 9
2026-07-30	$-7.42	$87,145,780	7 / 9
2026-07-31	$-6.69	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-01	$-6.69	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-02	$-7.42	$87,145,780	7 / 9
2026-08-03	$-7.42	$87,145,780	7 / 9
2026-08-04	$-7.42	$87,145,780	7 / 9
2026-08-05	$-7.42	$87,145,780	7 / 9
2026-08-06	$-7.42	$87,145,780	7 / 9
2026-08-07	$-6.63	$87,145,778	6 / 8
2026-08-08	$-7.20	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-09	$-6.63	$87,145,778	6 / 8
2026-08-10	$-7.20	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-08-12	$-6.63	$87,145,778	6 / 8
2026-08-13	$-6.63	$87,145,778	6 / 8
2026-08-14	$-6.63	$87,145,778	6 / 8
2026-08-15	$-6.63	$87,145,778	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$-6.63	$87,145,778	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$-6.63	$87,145,778	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$-6.63	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-19	$-6.63	$87,145,778	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-22	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-23	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-24	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-25	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-26	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-27	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-28	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-29	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-30	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-08-31	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-01	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-02	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-03	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-04	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-05	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-06	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-07	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-08	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-09	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-10	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-11	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-12	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-13	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-14	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-15	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-16	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-17	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-18	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-19	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-20	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-21	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-22	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-23	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-24	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-25	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-26	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-27	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-28	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-29	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-09-30	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-01	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-02	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-03	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$-6.52	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$-6.58	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$-6.73	$98,039,000	5 / 9
2026-10-08	$-6.58	$87,145,778	5 / 9
2026-10-09	$-6.56	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$-6.56	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$-6.56	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$-6.56	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$-6.46	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$-6.46	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$-6.46	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$-6.46	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-17	$-6.46	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-18	$-6.46	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$-6.46	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$-6.50	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$-6.50	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$-6.50	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$-6.50	$87,145,778	6 / 9
2026-10-24	$-6.50	$87,145,778	6 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	1
2026-06-01	10	1
2026-07-01	10	1
2026-08-01	10	1
2026-09-01	10	1
2026-10-01	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 12

$120.00New observation · no comparable prior

NeedhamOct 5

$122.00New observation · no comparable prior

GuggenheimOct 5

$125.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$68.75$137.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reduce losses and move toward positive earningsDiluted EPS: $-1.97 per share
Successful execution of manufacturing agreement with Thermo FisherDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Generate initial vaccine revenueRevenue: $0
Complete Phase 3 VAX-31 trial enrollment and progress to next stepsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Vaxcyte, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a clinical-stage healthcare growth story, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: key studies are progressing, but recent financial performance is weak and confidence in the overall evidence snapshot is low.

What's priced into Vaxcyte, Inc.

The snapshot provides no valuation comparison or clear account of market expectations, so whether PCVX is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear. It also reports low pricing fragility, but that alone does not show what clinical or business success the market already assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven: the company is loss-making, recent performance is weak, and the snapshot flags elevated risk of another earnings miss. Over the multi-year view, VAX-31 data and progress in the VAX-A1 study are central, while the cash balance has declined but remains substantial for supporting development.

What Vaxcyte, Inc. hinges on

The key swing factor is whether VAX-31 OPUS data support the planned path toward a biologics license application; OPUS-1 topline data were announced on October 5, 2026, with OPUS-2 and OPUS-3 data expected in the first half of 2027. The thesis also depends on VAX-A1 progress, cash use, and whether management avoids a guidance cut; the snapshot's wider sector signals are mixed, with a healthcare tailwind alongside weaker jobs data that could raise recession concerns.