Reading PACB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PACB free→Reading PACB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PACB free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, with management's recent track record being volatile and risk considered high. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, PACB is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while positive trends from sector bellwethers could provide momentum. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.32 PACB trades at 3× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $1.32 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 21%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.87x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.12 → $-0.13 (-1.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$301.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$835.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,805.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
As of June 15, 2026, the signal label changed to "cautious," indicating a shift in sentiment. Risk fell, suggesting a decrease in perceived volatility. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, which could impact performance. The company continues to show earnings quality as loss-making, reflecting ongoing challenges in financial performance.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue guidance shows the company is on track for growth. It reassures investors about future performance.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported between $165M and $175M.
Disproves:Q2 revenue falls below $165M.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PACB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On April 21, 2026, the board of directors (the "Board") of Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (the “Company”), at the recommendation of the compensation committee of the Board, approved an amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Company’s 2020 Equity Incentive Plan (the “2020 Plan”), subject to stockholder approval, to reserve an additional 16,000,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PACB Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | fair | high |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve revenue between $165 million and $175 million for the full year 2026.
Management is focused on improving gross profit margins over time.
Management is committed to reducing operating losses over time.
Why it matters: Better margins show the company is managing costs well. This can help gain investor trust.
Confirms:Gross profit margins improve by more than 2% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Gross profit margins decline or remain flat.
Why it matters: Lower operating losses mean better cost control. This can make investors more positive.
Confirms:Operating losses decrease by at least 10% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Operating losses increase or stay the same.
. 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. By: /s/ Jim R. Gibson Jim R. Gibson Chief Financial Officer Date: May 7, 2026
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On March 2, 2026, Michele Farmer notified Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (the "Company") that she is voluntarily resigning as Chief Accounting Officer of the Company effective on March 21, 2026, to pursue another opportunity. Ms. Farmer’s departure is not in connection with any known disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On March 3, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (the “Company”), upon the recommendation of its Corporate Governance and Nominating Committee, increased the size of the Board to ten directors and appointed Christopher Gibson, Ph.D. to serve as a Class I director effective as o…
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE. On March 5, 2026, the Company entered into a binding term sheet (the "Term Sheet") with Personal Genomics of Taiwan, Inc. (“PGI”) pursuant to which the Company receives a worldwide, royalty-free, non-exclusive license under U.S. Patent No. 7,767,441 and its related patent family, and a five-and-a-half-year covenant not to sue under any patents owned or controlled by PGI, and will result in the dismissal of all claims and counterclaims asserted by the Company and PGI…