Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. (PACB)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.11+2.43%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	43.21M
EPS	—	-0.132
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$155M–$165M	160.4M
EPS	—	-0.471
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	185.99M
EPS	—	-0.448

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross profit improves to at least $12.8M in 2026-Q1	PacBio is improving its gross profit, reaching $12.8M in Q1 2026 from a loss last year.	Improving	Gross profit falls below $10M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Gross profit: $12.638M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.8M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202612,638,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 00c635c9-f047-4e5e-84e2-2e5dc443ab91. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable management team with no major departures	A supporting condition in Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No unexpected key executive departures in next 12 months.	Under Pressure	Departure of CEO or CFO within next 12 months	CEO departure confirmed vs no departure target CEO transition event logged; Christian Henry succeeded by Mark Van Oene. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $170M in FY26	A primary condition in Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$170M.	Intact	Revenue falls below $160M in FY26	Revenue: $39.007M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$170M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202639,007,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 00c635c9-f047-4e5e-84e2-2e5dc443ab91. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.19B

Unavailable → $0.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	$-0.39	$194,280,570	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$-0.39	$194,280,570	5 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-29	$-0.39	$194,280,570	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$-0.39	$194,280,570	5 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$-0.39	$194,280,570	5 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	$-0.39	$194,280,570	5 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$-0.41	$187,497,680	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$-0.41	$187,497,680	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$-0.41	$187,497,680	5 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	$-0.40	$187,497,680	6 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$183,033,765	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$182,433,765	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$182,433,765	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$182,433,765	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$182,433,765	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$182,433,765	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$182,435,751	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$182,145,394	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$182,145,394	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$182,145,394	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$182,145,394	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$182,145,394	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$182,145,394	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$185,945,394	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$185,945,394	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$185,945,394	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$185,945,394	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$185,945,394	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$185,945,394	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$185,951,379	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$185,988,251	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$185,988,251	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$185,988,251	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$185,988,251	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	3	1
2026-06-01	4	3	1
2026-07-01	4	2	1
2026-08-01	4	2	1
2026-09-01	4	3	1
2026-10-01	4	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

StephensOct 23

$2.50New observation · no comparable prior

$0$1.38$2.75

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross profit improves to at least $12.8M in 2026-Q1Gross profit: $12.638M
Stable management team with no major departuresPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows to about $170M in FY26Revenue: $39.007M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-58.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making growth business, not yet a proven compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: revenue guidance is on track, but management execution is volatile and recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc.

PACB is valued at a premium to peers, with the evidence pointing to expectations for a re-rating, or a change in how the market values the company. The expectations gap is notable, but confidence in the valuation model is low, so the size of that gap is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has grown modestly, and management reiterated its 2026 revenue guidance. Cost reductions are early stage; second-quarter operating expenses rose due to restructuring and settlement charges, while commercial rollout of SPRQ-Nx and Revio placements is progressing but bears watching. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, and weaker employment data could add pressure through recession concerns.

What Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on meeting revenue guidance, delivering the planned operating-cost reductions, and expanding commercial adoption of SPRQ-Nx and Revio. Healthcare sector momentum could help near term if bellwethers keep reporting strong results, while weaker jobs data or lower guidance would weigh on the business outlook.