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Outlook Therapeutics Inc (OTLK)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$1.16-4.92%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
OTLK shows a weak financial performance, with volatile management and high risk. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 71% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Market cap
- $181.28M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2016-01-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-13
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$4.02consensus
Range $3.81 – $4.23
vs price: -71% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$11.60consensus
Range $11.60 – $11.60
vs price: -90% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $1.16 OTLK trades at 3× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $3.91 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
3.1x
peer 9.4x · own history —
Premium
0.3x peer
Growth the price needs
-70%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$3.91
range $3.72 – $4.11
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 70% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
46th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.77x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile23 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +12.6% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.11 → $-0.09 (+12.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$504.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,077.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,333.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OTLK yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting OTLK and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for OTLK and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping OTLK and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If OTLK misses again next quarter like this past one (a big miss of -42% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits OTLK and other Healthcare names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-181mo agoItem 2.02
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.