Reading OPTT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OPTT free→Reading OPTT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OPTT free→
AMEXIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it trades below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 304% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from OPTT and the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, ETN, and PH. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.28, OPTT's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 13× p/s (4.0× the 3× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~305% near-term growth vs our ~-23% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.07 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 305% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -23%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.66x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.03 → $-0.03 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,550.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Getting funding is important for operations. A successful issuance will help future growth.
Confirms:The company has issued 25 million shares. This process was successful.
Disproves:The equity issuance fails or is delayed beyond the expected timeline.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OPTT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 4, 2026, Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Securities Purchase Agreement”) with those institutional accredited investors identified on the signature page thereto (the “Purchasers”) pursuant to which the Company offered for sale to the Purchasers an aggregate of 25,000,000 shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share (the “common stock”), together with common…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OPTT Ocean Power Technologies Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 1 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on forming strategic partnerships to drive revenue growth.
Aim to enhance gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Raise capital by issuing additional shares to support business operations.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for the company's future. A positive change would signal progress.
Confirms:Revenue from partnerships increases to above $1 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue continues to decline or stays below $500,000 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Improving margins are key to financial health. A positive trend would show better cost management.
Confirms:Gross profit margins turn positive in the next quarter.
Disproves:Gross profit margins remain negative or worsen in the next quarter.
Other Events. On May 19, 2026, Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing an expansion in its global deployment footprint across U.S. government, international, and research customers. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is hereby incorporated by reference.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 1, 2026, Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Securities Purchase Agreement”) with certain institutional investors (the “Investors”) under which the Company agreed to issue and sell convertible notes for an aggregate principal amount of $10,000,000 (the “Notes”) that will be convertible into shares of the Company’s common stock, par value of $0.001 per share (the “Common Stock”).…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Results of Operation and Financial Condition On March 11, 2026, Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (the “Company”) issued an earnings flash announcing preliminary results of operations for the quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information set forth in