Reading NPO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NPO free→Reading NPO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NPO free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect NPO's performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 70% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $351.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $351 NPO trades at 43× p/e — 1.8× the 24× p/e peer median, and above its own 25× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $205 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $285–$345. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 72% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.06x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.32 → $2.32 (+0.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$188.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$326.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,345.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal weakening demand, especially in key segments.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth lands below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth meets or exceeds 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NPO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On May 5, 2026, Enpro Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is included a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$285.00 – $345.00 (median $310.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NPO EnPro Industries, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic pricing and acquisitions.
Improve gross profit through operational efficiencies and strategic pricing.
Focus on increasing operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Why it matters: An increase in operating income shows good cost management. This matches management's goal to make more money.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by more than 5% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Operating income declines or grows less than 2%.
Why it matters: A gross profit margin above 45% shows good pricing strategies. This helps management focus on making more money.
Confirms:Gross profit margin exceeds 45% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit margin falls below 40%.
Why it matters: A change in the dividend may show how confident management is about cash flow.
Confirms one read:Management says they will raise the quarterly dividend.
Confirms the other:Management says they will lower or stop the quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: A new CIO could change technology plans and how well the company runs. Quick solutions are important for stability.
Confirms one read:A new CIO is appointed by the end of Q2.
Confirms the other:No new CIO is appointed by the end of Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in the EBITDA margin may mean costs are rising or prices are falling.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 25% in Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin remains at or above 25% in Q2.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On April 20, Enpro Inc. (the “Company”) and Larisa R. Joiner mutually agreed that, on April 23, 2026, Ms. Joiner will step down from her role as the Company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer as the Company undertakes a search for her replacement in that position. The Company anticipates that Ms. Joiner will continue to serve…
of Form 8-K. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On February 18, 2026, Enpro Inc. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of such press release is i…