Reading NPCE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NPCE free→Reading NPCE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NPCE free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The valuation is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 NPCE trades at 6× p/s — 1.9× the 3× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $11 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 34% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.44x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.20 → $-0.20 (-0.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$198.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$468.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,599.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from expensive to full. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in the overall risk level. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market environment. The company continues to show loss-making earnings quality, reflecting ongoing financial difficulties.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into NeuroPace's financial health and future outlook. This is crucial for investors.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows positive earnings or revenue growth.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows losses or declining revenue.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NPCE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release, dated May 12, 2026, is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information in this Item 2.02 (including the exhibit hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NPCE NeuroPace, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | full | elevated |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has raised the full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $99 million and $101 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $98-$100 million to $99-$101 million for 2026. Revenue for 2026-Q1 was $22.068 million, indicating limited progress towards the higher guidance.
“Raises full year 2026 guidance to $99 million to $101 million...”
“Reiterates previously issued 2026 guidance assuming 20% to 22% growth...”
The company reiterates its full-year non-GAAP gross margin guidance between 81.5% and 82.5%.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross margin guidance maintained at 81.5%-82.5%. Gross profit for 2026-Q1 was $18.048 million, indicating limited progress towards achieving the high end of the margin guidance.
Management has increased the Adjusted EBITDA guidance to between ($8.5) million and ($9.5) million for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance improved from ($9.0)-($10.0) million to ($8.5)-($9.5) million. Operating income for 2026-Q1 was -$5.568 million, indicating limited progress towards the improved guidance.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a recovery in the sector. This would be important for NeuroPace's future.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth for NeuroPace exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth for NeuroPace remains below 10% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026, NeuroPace, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release dated March 3, 2026, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information (including the exhibit hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2025, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release, dated November 4, 2025, is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information in this Item 2.02 (including the exhibit hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 12, 2025, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release, dated August 12, 2025, is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information in this Item 2.02 (including the exhibit hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor sha…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Chief Financial Officer On June 20, 2025, Rebecca Kuhn departed from her position as Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, Finance and Administration of NeuroPace, Inc. (the “Company”) and will transition to the role of Senior Strategic Advisor—Finance, effective as of June 20, 2025 (the “Transition Date”). In connection with h…
“Reiterate full year non-GAAP gross margin between 81.5% and 82.5%.”
“Non-GAAP gross margin to be between 81.5% and 82.5%.”
“Increase Adjusted EBITDA to be between ($8.5) and ($9.5) million...”
“Adjusted EBITDA to be between ($9.0) and ($10.0) million.”