NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$14.50-1.76%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
NeuroPace is growing revenue to about $100 million in 2026. It keeps a high gross margin near 82%. The company improved its adjusted EBITDA loss guidance to about negative $9 million. FDA approval of its AI-driven product supports future growth.
The company remains unprofitable with adjusted EBITDA losses near $9 million. Revenue growth is modest and may not sustain. The stock price is high relative to current earnings and cash flow losses.
The stock price is about 42% above our valuation range and reflects roughly 15% revenue growth. Our view sees growth and margin targets as achievable but the current price assumes more progress than the company has shown so far.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA loss exceeds $9.5 million in FY26
Increase Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 to between ($8.5) million and ($9.5) million from prior range of ($9.0) million to ($10.0) million.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the healthcare sector. Currently, NPCE is navigating challenges as it transitions from a period of robust performance to a more fragile state.
The market seems to have priced in some level of fragility, as indicated by a low expectations gap. NPCE trades at a premium compared to its peers, suggesting that investors may still have some confidence in its long-term potential despite recent weaknesses.
Management is focused on increasing revenue guidance and maintaining high gross margins, which are on track. However, the overall financial performance has been weak, and there is a mixed outlook for adjusted EBITDA improvements.
The future performance of NPCE will depend on its ability to meet or exceed raised guidance and the overall health of the healthcare sector. Key factors include the performance of sector leaders and broader economic indicators, such as job reports.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped to the bottom half of its industry. This change weakens the reason to own NPCE. The company raised its revenue guidance for 2026. However, the FDA test could delay the IGE indication expansion.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance improved from a range of ($9.0) million to ($10.0) million to ($8.5) million to ($9.5) million for 2026. This reflects management's focus on cost control and improved profitability, showing progress on this priority.
“Increase Adjusted EBITDA to be between ($8.5) and ($9.5) million”
“Increase Adjusted EBITDA to be between ($8.5) and ($9.5) million compared to previous guidance”
“Adjusted EBITDA to be between ($9.0) and ($10.0) million”
Management has increased the Adjusted EBITDA guidance to between ($8.5) million and ($9.5) million for 2026.
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 81.5% in FY26
Breaks if: Full-year 2026 revenue falls below $99 million
Raise full year 2026 total revenue guidance reflecting 21% to 23% growth in core RNS revenue excluding IGE indication expansion.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $21.5M in 2025-Q4 to $22.8M in 2026-Q2 quarterly, with full year 2026 guidance raised from $98M-$100M to $99M-$101.5M reflecting 21%-23% growth in core RNS revenue excluding IGE. Management is delivering on this growth priority.
“Raises full year 2026 total revenue guidance to $99.5 million to $101.5 million”
“Raises full year 2026 guidance to $99 million to $101 million, up from $98 million to $100 million previously”
“Reiterates previously issued 2026 guidance assuming 20% to 22% growth in core RNS revenue”
In the next 1 to 3 years, NPCE's performance will be closely tied to management execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.