NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$12.91-1.75%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NeuroPace, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	28.31M
EPS	—	-0.117
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	100.28M
EPS	—	-0.573
Gross margin	81.5%–82.5%non-GAAP	—
Operating expenses	$90M–$92Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	121.95M
EPS	—	-0.281

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Limit adjusted EBITDA loss to no worse than $9.5 million	The company improved its adjusted EBITDA loss guidance to about negative $9 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA loss exceeds $9.5 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance improved from a range of ($9.0) million to ($10.0) million to ($8.5) million to ($9.5) million for 2026. This reflects management's focus on cost control and improved profitability, showing progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain gross margin between 81.5% and 82.5%	It keeps a high gross margin near 82%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 81.5% in FY26	Gross margin: 82.83% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 81.5% to 82.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 202682.826601 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4a76488e-4a10-4bc3-ab57-65e1bacbe862. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve full-year 2026 revenue of at least $99 million	A primary condition in NeuroPace, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $99 million.	Intact	Full-year 2026 revenue falls below $99 million	Revenue: $22.826M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $99 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 202622,826,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4a76488e-4a10-4bc3-ab57-65e1bacbe862. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $21.5M in 2025-Q4 to $22.8M in 2026-Q2 quarterly, with full year 2026 guidance raised from $98M-$100M to $99M-$101.5M reflecting 21%-23% growth in core RNS revenue excluding IGE. Management is delivering on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.28

$-0.34 → $-0.28 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.12B

$0.12B → $0.12B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.34	$123,266,108	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$-0.34	$123,266,108	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$-0.37	$123,414,318	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$-0.37	$123,414,318	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$-0.30	$123,247,720	7 / 8
2026-07-29	$-0.37	$123,414,318	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$-0.30	$123,247,720	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$-0.29	$123,437,080	8 / 9
2026-08-01	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$-0.29	$123,437,080	8 / 9
2026-08-03	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$-0.29	$123,437,080	8 / 9
2026-08-07	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$-0.29	$123,437,080	8 / 9
2026-08-09	$-0.29	$123,437,080	8 / 9
2026-08-10	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$-0.37	$123,412,752	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$-0.33	$122,344,051	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$-0.33	$122,348,162	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$-0.33	$122,348,162	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$-0.33	$122,348,162	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$-0.33	$122,348,162	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$-0.33	$122,348,162	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$-0.33	$122,348,162	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$-0.33	$122,344,184	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$-0.33	$122,344,184	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$-0.33	$122,344,184	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$-0.31	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$-0.29	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$-0.29	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$-0.29	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$-0.29	$122,259,766	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$-0.29	$122,260,065	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$-0.29	$122,260,065	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$-0.29	$122,260,065	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$-0.29	$122,260,065	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$-0.28	$121,947,800	6 / 8
2026-10-19	$-0.28	$121,947,800	6 / 8
2026-10-20	$-0.28	$121,947,800	6 / 8
2026-10-21	$-0.28	$121,947,800	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$-0.28	$121,947,800	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$-0.28	$121,947,800	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$-0.28	$121,947,800	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	0	0
2026-06-01	8	0	0
2026-07-01	9	0	0
2026-08-01	9	0	0
2026-09-01	10	0	0
2026-10-01	10	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Limit adjusted EBITDA loss to no worse than $9.5 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain gross margin between 81.5% and 82.5%Gross margin: 82.83%
Achieve full-year 2026 revenue of at least $99 millionRevenue: $22.826M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NeuroPace, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a smaller-cap growth business with elevated risk, not a proven profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management has delivered on revenue and gross-margin priorities, while recent financial performance remains weak versus its industry cohort.

What's priced into NeuroPace, Inc.

The valuation model indicates a durable premium of 1.56 versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative at -0.43. That suggests expectations may be ahead of the evidence, though model confidence is low and the priced-in assessment is marked justified with low fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, 2026 revenue guidance has risen to $99 million to $101.5 million, and gross-margin guidance remains high. Adjusted EBITDA guidance has improved, but the company remains loss-making and recent financial performance is weak; smaller size and a history of a deep miss add risk despite a quiet near-term miss watch.

What NeuroPace, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on NPCE sustaining its raised guidance and converting revenue growth into better profitability. A guidance reversal would damage management credibility, while weaker jobs data could weigh on healthcare names; continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.