Reading NAGE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NAGE free→Reading NAGE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NAGE free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although NAGE is above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. If NAGE cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.52 NAGE trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $3.43 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.24x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.04 → $0.02 (-48.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$196.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$606.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,661.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the health care sector speeds up, it could help Niagen's performance. This could improve investor confidence.
Confirms:Health care sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Health care sector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NAGE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and the exhibit hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the “Securities Act”) or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NAGE Niagen Bioscience, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management plans to increase investment in sales and marketing to drive growth.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management has indicated an increase in sales and marketing investment for 2026. However, revenue decreased from $33.9M in 2025-Q4 to $31.5M in 2026-Q1, showing limited progress in driving growth so far.
“Updated full year 2026 outlook: Sales & marketing investment expected to increase.”
Management aims to improve the general and administrative expense outlook for 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management improved the general and administrative expense outlook for 2026. Despite this, operating income decreased from $4.1M in 2025-Q4 to $1.6M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in cost management.
“General & administrative expense outlook improved to up $3–$4 million (from $4–$5 million).”
The company expanded its share repurchase program to $20 million.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company expanded its share repurchase program to $20 million. However, there is no evidence of share buybacks in the financials, indicating no substantive delivery on this capital allocation priority yet.
“Board approved an increase in the authorization under the Company’s share repurchase program to $20.0 million.”
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can improve its fragile quality status. Investors look for signs of better performance.
Confirms:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Other Events. On March 19, the Company issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Niagen Bioscience, Inc. (the “Company”) approved an increase in the authorization under the Company’s share repurchase program. Under the amended authorization, the Company may repurchase up to $20.0 million of its outstanding common stock, representing an increase from the previously authorized $10.0 million share repurchase program approved by the Board on October 31, 2025.…
in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.
Other Events. On February 24, 2026, ChromaDex, Inc. and ChromaDex Analytics, Inc., each a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, and the Company, as guarantor of certain provisions (together with ChromaDex, Inc. and ChromaDex Analytics, Inc., the “Sellers”), entered into an Asset Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with VHG Labs, Incorporated, part of LGC Group (the “Buyer”), pursuant to which the Sellers agreed to sell substantially all of the assets comprising the Sellers’ analyt…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 18, 2025, ChromaDex, Inc. (the “Company”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Niagen Bioscience, Inc. (the “Registrant”), executed an assignment agreement (the “Agreement”) with Queen’s University Belfast (“QUB”), with an effective date of December 16, 2025. The Agreement replaces the parties’ existing intellectual property arrangements pursuant to the Joint Ownership and Management Agreement, dated October 9, 2015, as amended (the “JOMA”), an…