Niagen Bioscience, Inc. (NAGE)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.43-3.57%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Niagen Bioscience, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	36.83M
EPS	—	0.027
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	131.69M
EPS	—	0.129
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	150.18M
EPS	—	0.123

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective execution of $20M share repurchase program	The company expanded its buyback program to $20M.	Intact	Buyback program is reduced or not executed as planned	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable profit margins and improve expense outlook	Profit margins and costs are stable.	Broken	expense outlook worsens or margins decline materially in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 18% in 2026	A primary condition in Niagen Bioscience, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=18% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 18% in FY26	Revenue growth: -4.28% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=18% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-4.280618 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ab40d9a2-4edf-4aa8-910b-b242c7ab9a25. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Sales and marketing expense increased by $1.6 million in Q1 2026 compared to prior year, reflecting management's plan to increase investment in brand growth and new verticals. The trajectory shows delivering increased spending consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-25	$0.28	$165,060,000	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$0.28	$165,060,000	5 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-28	$0.28	$165,060,000	5 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$165,060,000	1 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$163,060,000	1 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$162,353,000	1 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$155,298,800	1 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$155,298,800	1 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
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2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
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2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
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2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
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2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
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2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	0	0
2026-06-01	5	0	0
2026-07-01	6	0	0
2026-08-01	6	0	0
2026-09-01	6	0	0
2026-10-01	6	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective execution of $20M share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain stable profit margins and improve expense outlookPublished status: Broken
Revenue grows at least 18% in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-68.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Niagen Bioscience, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NAGE is a small-cap growth business with a cyclical risk profile, supported by a healthcare sector tailwind. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, but earnings quality is neutral and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Niagen Bioscience, Inc.

The valuation is described as cheap, though NAGE trades at a modest premium to peers. Expectations and the valuation signal are broadly aligned, with only weak execution quality reflected in the fragility assessment rather than a wider set of concerns.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, Tru Niagen sales and direct-to-consumer growth support management’s 10-15% e-commerce growth aim for 2026, while increased sales and marketing spending is on track. The next results remain a key risk: the snapshot flags a high miss-rate industry and a smaller-cap profile, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.

What Niagen Bioscience, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on e-commerce growth continuing and higher marketing investment translating into sustained business progress. Near term, guidance and employment data are swing factors, while earnings and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

Recent business performance keeps NAGE’s long-term thesis intact, but neutral earnings quality and elevated near-term risk make execution the key test over the next 1-3 years. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	36.83M
EPS	—	0.027
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	131.69M
EPS	—	0.129
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	150.18M
EPS	—	0.123

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-25	$0.28	$165,060,000	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$0.28	$165,060,000	5 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-28	$0.28	$165,060,000	5 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$165,060,000	1 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$163,060,000	1 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$162,353,000	1 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$155,298,800	1 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$155,298,800	1 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
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2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
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2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
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2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
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2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings