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Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MIRM)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$101.55+0.54%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from MIRM and the performance of sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Market cap
- $6.16B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2019-06-21
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $101.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$103.89consensus
Range $93.70 – $114.08
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$248.00consensus
Range $223.74 – $272.26
vs price: -59% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $102 MIRM trades at 11× p/s, in line with its 10× p/s peer median. Our $106 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $112–$185. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
11.5x
peer 9.6x · own history —
Premium
1.2x peer
Growth the price needs
-6%
our forecast 72%
Our fair value
$106.37
range $95.74 – $117.00
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
(median $140.00) · 17 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 72%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
0th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.21x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -87.8% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.43 → $-0.81 (-87.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 52.8% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$163.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$406.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,055.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings report on August 5, 2026
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Mirum can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of growth or continued losses.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows more money coming in or smaller losses than before.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows ongoing losses or less money coming in than before.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MIRM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting MIRM and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MIRM and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If MIRM reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-06), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping MIRM and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If MIRM misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-181mo agoItem 1.01
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Indenture and Notes On May 15, 2026, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued $690.0 million aggregate principal amount of its 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032 (the “Notes”), which includes the full exercise of the initial purchasers’ option to purchase up to an additional $90.0 million aggregate principal amount of Notes. The Notes were issued pursuant to, and are governed by, an indenture (the “Indenture”), dated as of May 15, 202…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.