Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MIRM)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$80.39-3.26%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	184.01M
EPS	—	-0.539
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	698.14M
EPS	—	-15.123
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	824.5M
EPS	—	-0.633

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successfully integrate Bluejay Therapeutics acquisition	A supporting condition in Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Complete integration and realize synergies.	Intact	Acquisition fails to add value or causes disruption	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage $690 million convertible notes effectively	Convertible notes provide capital for future plans.	Intact	Financial distress or inability to service notes	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches $660-$680 million in 2026	A primary condition in Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $660-$680 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $660 million in FY26	Revenue: $176.243M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $660-$680 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026176,243,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 87bf14a3-d9b7-4495-9f30-310302e5d1b4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.63

$-0.66 → $-0.63 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.82B

$0.81B → $0.82B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.66	$812,602,028	8 / 9
2026-07-25	$-0.66	$812,602,028	8 / 9
2026-07-26	$-0.19	$815,148,390	5 / 12
2026-07-27	$-0.19	$815,148,390	5 / 12
2026-07-28	$-0.19	$815,148,390	5 / 12
2026-07-29	$-0.19	$815,148,390	5 / 12
2026-07-30	$-0.19	$815,148,390	5 / 12
2026-07-31	$-0.19	$815,148,390	5 / 12
2026-08-01	$-0.66	$812,602,028	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$-0.19	$815,148,390	5 / 12
2026-08-03	$-0.19	$815,148,390	5 / 12
2026-08-04	$-0.19	$815,148,390	5 / 12
2026-08-05	$-0.19	$815,148,390	5 / 12
2026-08-06	$-0.19	$815,148,390	5 / 12
2026-08-07	$-0.78	$812,694,286	8 / 9
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$823,550,200	3 / 12
2026-08-09	$-0.78	$812,694,286	8 / 9
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$823,550,200	3 / 12
2026-08-12	$-0.78	$812,694,286	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$-0.78	$812,694,286	8 / 9
2026-08-14	$-0.78	$812,694,286	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$-0.78	$812,694,286	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$-0.78	$812,694,286	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$-0.78	$812,694,286	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$-0.78	$812,694,286	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$-0.78	$812,694,286	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$-0.76	$813,657,955	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$-0.76	$813,656,125	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$-0.70	$816,620,678	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$-0.66	$816,978,522	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$-0.66	$816,978,522	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$-0.66	$816,978,522	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$-0.66	$816,978,522	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$-0.66	$816,978,522	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$-0.66	$816,978,522	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$-0.66	$816,978,522	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$-0.66	$816,978,522	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$-0.66	$816,978,522	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$-0.66	$818,473,445	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$-0.66	$818,473,445	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$-0.66	$818,473,445	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$-0.66	$818,473,445	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$-0.67	$818,440,997	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$-0.70	$818,441,028	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$-0.70	$818,441,028	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$-0.70	$818,864,105	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$-0.70	$818,864,105	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$-0.70	$818,864,105	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$-0.70	$818,864,105	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$-0.61	$826,352,220	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$-0.61	$826,352,220	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$-0.63	$824,502,420	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$-0.63	$824,502,420	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$-0.63	$824,502,420	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	0	0
2026-06-01	14	0	0
2026-07-01	14	0	0
2026-08-01	14	0	0
2026-09-01	14	0	0
2026-10-01	14	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades10 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 10 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 14 · prior May 7

$136.00 → $156.00+14.7%

Evercore ISIOct 13 · prior May 7

$138.00 → $146.00+5.8%

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior Sep 28

$144.00 → $152.00+5.6%

H.C. WainwrightOct 12 · prior Sep 28

$195.00 → $200.00+2.6%

RBC CapitalOct 8 · prior Aug 6

$135.00 → $155.00+14.8%

Robert W. BairdSep 29 · prior Aug 6

$123.00 → $130.00+5.7%

$0$110.00$220.00

6 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Successfully integrate Bluejay Therapeutics acquisitionQualitative condition
Manage $690 million convertible notes effectivelyQualitative condition
Revenue reaches $660-$680 million in 2026Revenue: $176.243M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a commercial-growth and pipeline-driven biotech with elevated risk, not a proven durable compounder: the business is loss-making and recent financial performance is weak. The long-term thesis is on watch, with guidance raised and revenue growing in the latest quarter, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: MIRM is described as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not fully aligned with the model’s outlook, but confidence in that read is medium; the priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with no fragility gates triggered.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and the raised 2026 net product sales guidance support the operating story, while an elevated risk of an earnings miss and the recent earnings miss make execution uncertain. Over the multi-year view, pipeline progress could add to the growth story, but milestones are mixed and the company remains loss-making. The recent risk label increased from moderate to elevated, and litigation was reported in October.

What Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. hinges on

A key swing factor is whether MIRM can deliver on its raised guidance; cutting it after the increase would also damage management credibility. Pipeline milestones, including expected Phase 3 topline results for brelovitug and progress on other programs, are another important test. A weakening jobs trend could weigh on healthcare names, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.