Reading MDGL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MDGL free→Reading MDGL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MDGL free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If MDGL cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $501.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $500 MDGL trades at 13× p/s — 1.4× the 9× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $434 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $542–$709. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 15% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.87x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.41 → $-2.23 (-58.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 85% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$136.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$346.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,936.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector growth speeds up, it could benefit Madrigal. A strong sector can lift individual stocks.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth stays below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MDGL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 o…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$542.00 – $709.00 (median $613.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding Rezdiffra's market presence and achieving robust sales growth.
Focus on improving financial performance and reducing net losses.
Enhance growth through strategic partnerships and collaborations.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 22, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) completed a process to reclassify the membership of the Board’s three classes of directors to achieve a more equal apportionment of membership among the three classes following its Annual Meeting of Stockholders to be held on June 17, 2026 (the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 29, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”), F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Hoffmann-La Roche Inc. (together, “Roche”) entered into the First Amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Research, Development, and Commercialization Agreement dated as of December 18, 2008 between the Company and Roche. Pursuant to the terms of the Amendment, effective as of the Effective Date, the Company will have the full and excl…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 5, 2025, the Board of Directors of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Rita Thakkar as Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer of the Company, effective January 12, 2026. In such capacity, Ms. Thakkar will serve as the “principal accounting officer” of the Company for purposes of filings with the Securiti…