Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$434.24-4.21%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-13.3% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.55 → 5.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	444.51M
EPS	—	-0.105
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.52B
EPS	—	-6.023
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.11B
EPS	—	5.681

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net loss improves to at least -$94 million	A primary condition in Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=-94.4 USD million.	Intact	Net loss worsens below -$114 million next year	Net income: $-57.939M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=-94.4 USD million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 2026-57,939,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4ad0f58a-f5ba-4889-b92a-b84f3563b433. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net loss improved from $94.4 million in 2026-Q1 to $57.9 million in 2026-Q2. Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities increased from $817.9 million to $838.9 million over the same period. The trajectory shows progress toward financial stability as management emphasized. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Rezdiffra sales grow to at least $311 million	Madrigal is growing sales of Rezdiffra, from $287M to $311M.	Improving	Rezdiffra revenue falls below $287 million next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Rezdiffra net sales grew from $137.3 million in 2025-Q1 to $311.3 million in 2026-Q1 (+127%), and further to $364.3 million in 2026-Q2 (+71% year-over-year). Patient count more than doubled from 2Q25 to over 49,000 in 2Q26. The trajectory is delivering robust growth as management emphasized. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Expand strategic partnerships to support growth	A supporting condition in Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is expand partnerships steadily.	Intact	No new partnerships formed or partnerships fail to grow	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.68

Unavailable → $5.68 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.11B

$2.17B → $2.11B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,170,251,420	3 / 14
2026-07-25	$8.60	$2,194,834,537	8 / 11
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,179,615,540	3 / 14
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$2,179,615,540	3 / 14
2026-07-28	$8.64	$2,203,574,384	8 / 11
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$2,182,907,840	3 / 15
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$2,182,907,840	3 / 15
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$2,172,138,500	2 / 15
2026-08-01	$8.07	$2,170,064,478	7 / 11
2026-08-02	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$2,149,352,570	4 / 16
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,149,352,570	4 / 16
2026-08-05	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-06	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-07	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$2,144,884,070	4 / 15
2026-08-09	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-10	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-12	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$2,144,884,070	4 / 15
2026-08-14	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-15	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-16	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-17	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-18	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-19	$6.70	$2,150,072,846	8 / 11
2026-08-20	$6.55	$2,154,233,887	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$6.55	$2,154,233,887	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$6.55	$2,154,233,887	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$6.55	$2,154,233,887	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$6.55	$2,154,233,887	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$6.55	$2,154,233,887	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$6.55	$2,154,233,887	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$6.55	$2,154,233,887	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$6.55	$2,154,233,887	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-11	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-12	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-13	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-14	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-15	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-16	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-17	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-18	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-19	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-20	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-21	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-22	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-23	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-24	$6.55	$2,154,119,093	9 / 11
2026-09-25	$6.34	$2,128,598,626	9 / 12
2026-09-26	$6.34	$2,128,598,626	9 / 12
2026-09-27	$6.34	$2,128,598,626	9 / 12
2026-09-28	$6.34	$2,128,598,626	9 / 12
2026-09-29	$6.34	$2,128,598,626	9 / 12
2026-09-30	$6.11	$2,128,598,626	9 / 12
2026-10-01	$6.11	$2,128,597,433	9 / 12
2026-10-02	$6.11	$2,128,597,433	9 / 12
2026-10-03	$6.11	$2,128,597,433	9 / 12
2026-10-04	$6.11	$2,128,597,433	9 / 12
2026-10-05	$6.11	$2,128,597,433	9 / 12
2026-10-06	$6.11	$2,128,597,433	9 / 12
2026-10-07	$6.11	$2,128,616,433	9 / 12
2026-10-08	$6.11	$2,128,616,433	9 / 12
2026-10-09	$6.11	$2,128,616,433	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$6.11	$2,128,616,433	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$6.11	$2,128,616,433	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$6.11	$2,128,616,433	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$5.83	$2,118,515,291	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$5.83	$2,118,515,291	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$5.71	$2,115,337,035	9 / 12
2026-10-16	$5.71	$2,115,337,035	9 / 12
2026-10-17	$5.71	$2,115,337,035	9 / 12
2026-10-18	$5.71	$2,115,337,035	9 / 12
2026-10-19	$5.71	$2,115,337,035	9 / 12
2026-10-20	$5.68	$2,113,546,851	9 / 12
2026-10-21	$5.68	$2,113,546,851	9 / 12
2026-10-22	$5.68	$2,113,546,851	9 / 12
2026-10-23	$5.68	$2,113,546,851	9 / 12
2026-10-24	$5.68	$2,113,546,851	9 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	2
2026-06-01	14	2
2026-07-01	15	2
2026-08-01	16	2
2026-09-01	18	1
2026-10-01	18	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 14

$735.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$404.25$808.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net loss improves to at least -$94 millionNet income: $-57.939M
Rezdiffra sales grow to at least $311 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Expand strategic partnerships to support growthQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth business built around Rezdiffra and a developing MASH pipeline. The thesis is intact, with management’s growth priority on track, but the company remains loss-making and confidence is medium.

What's priced into Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

The valuation model shows MDGL trading at a premium to peers, while expectations are broadly aligned with the evidence and the priced-in tag is justified. That suggests the valuation reflects the growth story, but it leaves limited evidence of a large expectations gap in either direction.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, Rezdiffra sales and patient growth support continued business momentum: sales reached $364.3 million in 2026-Q2, up 71% year over year, and patient count exceeded 49,000. Earnings remain erratic, with a 43% estimated miss probability for the next report, so guidance and execution are important near-term risks.

What Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on whether Rezdiffra can sustain growth and whether pipeline work advances into meaningful therapies; recent pipeline progress is mixed. Near term, a guidance cut or further job-market weakening would be unfavorable, while strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.