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Mister Car Wash, Inc. (MCW)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$7.100.00%
Close 2026-05-19 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, MCW is above typical for the sector. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Auto & Truck Dealerships
- Market cap
- $2.34B
- Employees
- 6,836
- IPO date
- 2021-06-02
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primary—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
—
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
no read12-month view
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
Compared to peers
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E
—
EV/EBITDA
—
FCF yield
—
Earnings yield (TTM)
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
78th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
72nd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -3.9% / 30d, n=6for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.12 → $0.12 (-3.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 3 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$28.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$310.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,834.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for revenue growth dropping below median
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals potential issues in the consumer discretionary sector. This could impact future earnings.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MCW yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CVNA, PAG, and KMX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting MCW and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MCW raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MCW cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CVNA, PAG, and KMX start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping MCW and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits MCW and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-1929d agoItem 3.01
On May 19, 2026, in connection with the consummation of the Merger, the Company notified The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (“ NASDAQ ”) that a certificate of merger was filed with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware for purposes of consummating the Merger. The Company requested that NASDAQ file with the SEC a Notification of Removal from Listing and/or Registration under Section 12(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), on Form 25 in order to effec…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.