Reading MATV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MATV free→Reading MATV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MATV free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect MATV's performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 77% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact MATV's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.10 MATV trades at 9× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $35 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 77% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.97x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.34 → $0.28 (-17.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$171.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$513.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,944.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Mativ is doing during sector challenges.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth or better profit margins from last quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows more losses or lower revenue.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MATV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Mativ Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act") or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MATV Mativ Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | — | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Enhance operational efficiency through manufacturing and supply chain improvements.
Generate significant cash flow to reduce leverage and strengthen the balance sheet.
Achieve commercial excellence by implementing careful pricing actions and building pipelines.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Approval of Amendment No. 2 to the Mativ Holdings, Inc. 2024 Equity and Incentive Plan At the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders of Mativ Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) held on April 30, 2026 (the “2026 Annual Meeting”), the Company’s stockholders approved Amendment No. 2 (the “Plan Amendment”) to the Mativ Holdings, Inc. 2024 Equity and Incentive…
of this Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. SOURCE: Mativ Holdings, In…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On April 3, 2026, Mativ Holdings, Inc. (“Mativ” or the “Company”) entered into the Ninth Amendment (the “Amendment”) to Mativ’s multicurrency credit agreement, dated as of September 25, 2018 (as amended prior to such date, including by the Eighth Amendment dated December 17, 2024, the “Prior Agreement,” and the Prior Agreement as amended by the Amendment, the “Amended Credit Agreement”). The Amendment is effective as of April 3, 2026. The Amendment p…
Departure of Directors or Certain officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Mativ Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) today announced that on March 30, 2026, Ryan Elwart, the Company’s Group President, tendered his resignation effective as of April 27, 2026, to pursue other opportunities.