Reading LYRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LYRA free→Reading LYRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LYRA free→Health CareSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it is priced below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the company's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.65. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.65 LYRA trades at 3× p/s, in line with its 3× p/s peer median. Our $0.62 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 5% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -60%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.00x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$292.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,033.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,700.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from "fair" to "full." Risk fell. The sector backdrop changed to a headwind. Earnings quality remains loss-making. Management is volatile and capital-unfriendly.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LYRA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Termination of 880 Winter Street Sublease (Waltham, Massachusetts) On April 13, 2026, Lyra Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Termination of Sublease with RVAC Medicines (US), Inc. to terminate the Company’s sublease for approximately 23,704 rentable square feet at 880 Winter Street, Waltham, Massachusetts. The sublease, dated December 21, 2023, terminated effective as of March 31, 2026, with the Company required to surrender the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LYRA LYRA THERAPEUTICS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | fair | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
The company has decided to suspend further development of its lead product candidate, LYR-210, for chronic rhinosinusitis.
The company is implementing a cost reduction plan, including workforce reduction, to preserve capital.
The company has terminated sublease agreements to reduce financial obligations.
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Termination of 480 Arsenal Street Lease (Watertown, Massachusetts) On March 31, 2026, Lyra Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Agreement for Termination of Lease and Voluntary Surrender of Premises with ARE-480 Arsenal Street, LLC to terminate the Company’s lease for approximately 22,343 rentable square feet at 480 Arsenal Way, Suites 200 and 200A, Watertown, Massachusetts. The lease, as amended, was originally scheduled to expire…
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On March 13, 2026, Lyra Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) received a letter (the “Letter”) from the Nasdaq Hearings Advisor at The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) confirming that the Company has withdrawn its appeal of the delisting determination issued by Nasdaq’s Listings Qualifications Staff on February 2, 2026. The Letter further confirms that as a result of the withdrawal of the Compa…
Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. On February 23, 2026, Lyra Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) received a notice of default from RVAC Medicines (US), Inc. (“RVAC”) under the sublease agreement dated December 21, 2023 (the “Sublease”) between RVAC, as sublessor, and the Company, as sublessee, for office space located at 880 Winter Street, Suite 1002, Waltham, MA 02451 (the “Premises”). Pursuant to the notice of…
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On February 2, 2026, Lyra Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) received a letter (the “Staff Determination Letter”) from the Listing Qualifications Department of The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) notifying the Company that Nasdaq has determined to delist the Company’s common stock from The Nasdaq Stock Market. The Company has requested a hearing before a Nasdaq Hearings Panel to appeal Nasd…