Reading LXRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LXRX free→Reading LXRX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LXRX free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, LXRX is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.96 LXRX trades at 13× p/s — 1.4× the 9× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $1.66 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 22% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.49x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.05 → $-0.05 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$235.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$685.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,409.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector revenue growth speeds up, it may benefit Lexicon. A strong sector can lift all companies.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LXRX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operation and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, we issu ed a press release to report our financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this current report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached to this Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LXRX Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals aims to secure up to $100 million in borrowing capacity through a loan agreement with Hercules Capital.
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals is focused on increasing its revenue, as evidenced by the significant rise in 2026-Q1.
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals is addressing its operating losses, which remain a concern despite revenue growth.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Loan and Security Agreement On May 4, 2026, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“ Lexicon ”) and its subsidiaries entered into a loan and security agreement with Hercules Capital, Inc. and certain of its affiliates (“ Hercules ”) that provides up to $100 million in borrowing capacity (the “ Hercules Term Loans ”) available in three tranches, each maturing in May 2030. Monthly interest-only payments are due during an initial 18-month period, which may be e…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information contained in
The issuance of the warrants discussed above and the underlying shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of the warrants have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “ Securities Act ”). The issuance of the warrants was made in reliance on the exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act provided by Section 4(a)(2) thereof. Any shares of common stock issuable upon exercise of the warrants will be issued in reliance on th…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On April 30, 2026, our stockholders approved (a) our 2026 Equity Incentive Plan, amended and restating our existing 2017 Equity Incentive Plan and increasing the total number of shares of our common stock that may be issued pursuant to stock awards granted under the plan from 75,000,000 to 90,000,000, all of which may be granted as stock options, an…