Reading LECO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LECO free→Reading LECO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LECO free→NASDAQIndustrialsTools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, LECO is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If LECO cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $267.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $268 LECO trades at 27× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $242 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $240–$320. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.79 → $2.79 (+0.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 6 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$261.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,010.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong organic sales growth would support Lincoln Electric's goal to increase revenue. It would show demand is holding up despite sector headwinds.
Confirms:Q2 organic sales grew more than 7.8%.
Disproves:Q2 organic sales grew less than 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LECO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended March 31,2026. A copy of the Company’s press release issued on April 30, 2026 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release is also available through the Company’s website at www.lincolnelectric.com . The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, in…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$240.00 – $320.00 (median $287.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LECO Lincoln Electric | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | full | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Continue efforts to improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Commitment to increasing shareholder returns through higher dividends.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth would show a good change in the business cycle. It may mean Lincoln Electric is handling industry challenges well.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping or improving the operating margin shows good cost control. This helps profits as costs rise.
Confirms:Operating income margin was more than 16.6%.
Disproves:Operating income margin was less than 16.0%.
Why it matters: Higher operating income growth shows good cost control. It also shows better efficiency.
Confirms:Operating income growth is over 10% compared to last year in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income growth is below 5% compared to last year in Q2.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends would signal strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders. It reflects confidence in future earnings.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend increase before the Q3 earnings call.
Disproves:No dividend increase announced before the Q3 earnings call.
Why it matters: Increasing dividends shows strong cash flow and a promise to give value back.
Confirms:Announcement of an increase in dividend per share.
Disproves:No increase in dividend per share announced.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows renewed revenue growth, it could lift Lincoln Electric's sales. It would indicate a healthier market environment.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up to 5% or more.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth slows further below 3%.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector improves, it could benefit Lincoln Electric's growth. A shift could indicate better demand for their products.
Confirms:Sector performance shifts from headwind to neutral or better.
Disproves:Sector performance remains a headwind.
Why it matters: Better sector performance may mean a recovery in industrials. This could help Lincoln Electric.
Confirms one read:Sector performance is better than peers like CAT and GE. This shows positive momentum.
Confirms the other:Sector performance is still behind peers. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Better operating income would mean Lincoln Electric is controlling costs well. This is important for making more money long-term.
Confirms:Operating income growth improves from the current progress score of 72.0.
Disproves:Operating income growth goes down or stays the same.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release issued on February 12, 2026 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The press release is also available through the Company’s website at www.lincolnelectric.com . The information in this Current Report on Fo…
Departures of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 15, 2025, the Compensation and Executive Development Committee (“ Committee ”) of the Board of Directors of Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ”) approved and adopted the Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. Executive Severance Plan (the “ Plan ”), which will be effective as of November 1, 2025. The Company has existing individua…