Lincoln Electric (LECO)

NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$255.96-0.40%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lincoln Electric’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.55 → 12.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.19B
EPS	—	2.962
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	4.71B
EPS	—	11.203
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5B
EPS	—	12.524

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share growth	Dividends increased to $0.79 per share, showing strong shareholder returns.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.75 next year	Dividend per share: $0.79 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.79 next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.79 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 45c76d8b-b847-48e0-9f7a-f7b41f78668a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.75 in 2025-Q3 to $0.79 in 2026-Q2. The company returned $120 million to shareholders in 2026-Q2 through dividends and share repurchases, showing consistent capital return aligned with management's stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income growth and margin stability	Profit improved with operating income rising to $186 million.	Improving	Operating income falls below $176M next year	Operating income: $220.644M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $186M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026220,644,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 45c76d8b-b847-48e0-9f7a-f7b41f78668a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 7% annually	A primary condition in Lincoln Electric's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Revenue growth: 12.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202612.032079 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 45c76d8b-b847-48e0-9f7a-f7b41f78668a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.004 billion in 2025-Q1 to $1.220 billion in 2026-Q2, a 12.0% increase, driven by 10.1% organic growth plus acquisitions and favorable FX. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth as management emphasized. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.52

$12.05 → $12.52 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.00B

$4.83B → $5.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.05	$4,830,805,820	11 / 10
2026-07-25	$12.05	$4,830,805,820	11 / 10
2026-07-26	$12.05	$4,830,805,820	11 / 10
2026-07-27	$12.05	$4,829,758,614	8 / 9
2026-07-28	$12.05	$4,829,758,614	8 / 9
2026-07-29	$12.05	$4,830,805,820	11 / 10
2026-07-30	$12.05	$4,829,758,614	8 / 9
2026-07-31	$12.07	$4,839,885,820	11 / 10
2026-08-01	$12.21	$4,898,284,959	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$12.21	$4,898,280,836	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$12.22	$4,902,690,720	11 / 10
2026-08-04	$12.22	$4,902,690,720	11 / 10
2026-08-05	$12.21	$4,898,280,836	9 / 9
2026-08-06	$12.21	$4,898,280,836	9 / 9
2026-08-07	$12.21	$4,898,280,836	9 / 9
2026-08-08	$12.42	$4,975,643,060	11 / 10
2026-08-09	$12.42	$4,975,643,060	11 / 10
2026-08-10	$12.21	$4,898,280,836	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$12.21	$4,898,280,836	9 / 9
2026-08-13	$12.52	$4,991,806,820	12 / 11
2026-08-14	$12.21	$4,898,280,836	9 / 9
2026-08-15	$12.21	$4,898,280,836	9 / 9
2026-08-16	$12.21	$4,898,280,836	9 / 9
2026-08-17	$12.21	$4,898,280,836	9 / 9
2026-08-18	$12.21	$4,898,280,836	9 / 9
2026-08-19	$12.21	$4,898,280,836	9 / 9
2026-08-20	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	9 / 9
2026-08-21	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-08-22	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-08-23	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-08-24	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-08-25	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-08-26	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-08-27	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-08-28	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-08-29	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-08-30	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-08-31	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-09-01	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-09-02	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-09-03	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-09-04	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	10 / 10
2026-09-05	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$12.53	$4,996,787,507	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$12.53	$4,996,791,213	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$12.53	$4,996,791,213	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$12.53	$4,996,791,213	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$12.53	$4,996,791,213	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$12.53	$4,996,791,213	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-09-26	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-09-27	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-09-28	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-09-29	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-09-30	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-10-01	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-10-02	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-10-03	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-10-04	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-10-05	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-10-06	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-10-07	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-10-08	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-10-09	$12.55	$4,999,630,706	10 / 10
2026-10-10	$12.52	$4,997,490,706	10 / 10
2026-10-11	$12.52	$4,997,490,706	10 / 10
2026-10-12	$12.52	$4,997,490,706	10 / 10
2026-10-13	$12.52	$4,998,127,000	10 / 10
2026-10-14	$12.52	$4,998,127,000	10 / 10
2026-10-15	$12.52	$4,998,127,000	10 / 10
2026-10-16	$12.52	$4,998,127,000	10 / 10
2026-10-17	$12.52	$4,998,127,000	10 / 10
2026-10-18	$12.52	$4,998,127,000	10 / 10
2026-10-19	$12.52	$4,998,127,000	10 / 10
2026-10-20	$12.52	$5,003,627,000	10 / 10
2026-10-21	$12.52	$5,003,627,000	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$12.52	$5,004,377,000	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$12.52	$5,004,377,000	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$12.52	$5,004,377,000	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	3	2
2026-06-01	6	3	2
2026-07-01	6	4	2
2026-08-01	7	4	2
2026-09-01	7	4	1
2026-10-01	7	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 19 · prior May 1

$275.00 → $271.00-1.5%

$0$151.25$302.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share growthDividend per share: $0.79 per share
Operating income growth and margin stabilityOperating income: $220.644M
Revenue growth at or above 7% annuallyRevenue growth: 12.03%

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lincoln Electric outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LECO looks like a growing industrial business with improving profitability, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent results holding in the top half of its industry, though confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into Lincoln Electric

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is modest, so the market appears to reflect much of the current business outlook without a clear sign of excessive optimism.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the recent period, revenue grew through organic growth, acquisitions, and favorable currency effects, while operating income and margins also improved. Management has stayed focused on growth, efficiency, and shareholder returns, but near-term results remain exposed to sector weakness and the possibility of lower guidance.

What Lincoln Electric hinges on

The multi-year view depends on management sustaining revenue growth and margin improvement. Near term, lower guidance would be a meaningful setback, while continued strong results and guidance from industrial peers could support the sector backdrop; misses from those peers could weaken it.