Lincoln Electric (LECO)
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$271.52-2.00%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Lincoln Electric grows revenue about 7% a year, with $1.12 billion in Q1 2026. Profit improved with operating income rising to $186 million. Dividends increased to $0.79 per share, showing strong shareholder returns. The company beat EPS estimates with $2.5 in Q1 2026.
Revenue growth could slow below 7% as competition rises. Operating income gains may stall, pressuring profit margins. Dividend increases might pause if cash flow weakens or costs rise.
The price is about 13% above our fair value near $227, reflecting roughly 7% revenue growth. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median, suggesting some caution versus consensus optimism.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.75 next year
Maintain and grow dividend payments to shareholders as part of capital allocation strategy.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and profitability. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, although sector headwinds present challenges.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly stretched compared to peers. There is a low level of fragility priced in, reflecting the company's recent execution quality.
Management is on track with priorities to increase revenue growth, enhance operating income, and raise dividends. Recent results show strong revenue and margin improvements, but there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and LECO's ability to maintain guidance. If leading companies in the Industrials sector perform well, it could provide tailwinds for LECO; however, any negative guidance could impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports improved revenue growth. Analysts upgraded their ratings, indicating a better growth outlook. There are no new threats affecting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.75 in 2025-Q3 to $0.79 in 2026-Q2. The company returned $120 million to shareholders in 2026-Q2 through dividends and share repurchases, showing consistent capital return aligned with management's stated priority.
“Returned $120 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases”
“Returned $101 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases”
“Returned $507 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025”
“Dividend per share increased to $0.75 in 2025-Q3 and $0.79 in 2026-Q2”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $176M next year
Continue efforts to improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year
Focus on growing net sales through organic growth, acquisitions, and favorable foreign exchange impacts.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.004 billion in 2025-Q1 to $1.220 billion in 2026-Q2, a 12.0% increase, driven by 10.1% organic growth plus acquisitions and favorable FX. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth as management emphasized.
“Net sales increase 12.0% to a record $1,220 million; organic sales increase 10.1%”
“First quarter 2026 sales increased 11.7% reflecting 7.8% organic sales, acquisitions and favorable foreign exchange.”
“Fourth quarter 2025 sales increased 5.5% reflecting 2.5% organic sales, acquisitions and favorable foreign exchange.”
“Full year 2025 sales increased 5.6% primarily reflecting 2.5% organic sales and 2.7% benefit from acquisitions.”
Overall, LECO's fundamentals are strong, but the sector backdrop poses risks. Not investment advice.