Reading KIDS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KIDS free→Reading KIDS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KIDS free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 55% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the company's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $18 KIDS trades at 2× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $40 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 55% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.10x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.28 → $-0.28 (+0.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$136.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$446.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,818.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is improving or still losing money. Investors will focus on revenue and profit trends.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth over 10%. It also shows a way to make money.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued losses and revenue decline.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KIDS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, OrthoPediatrics Corp. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and making other disclosures. The press release (including the accompanying unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements as of and for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and other financial data) is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, includi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KIDS OrthoPediatrics Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to generate approximately $25 million of adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently projected $25 million of adjusted EBITDA for 2026. However, operating income remains negative, with a loss of $8.3 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards this target.
“expects to generate approximately $25.0 million of adjusted EBITDA for full year 2026.”
“The Company also expects to generate approximately $25.0 million of adjusted EBITDA for full year 2026.”
“The Company also expects approximately $25 million Adjusted EBITDA in 2026.”
OrthoPediatrics projects 2026 revenue to be in the range of $263 million to $267 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $59.36 million in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the annual guidance of $263M to $267M. The trajectory shows recurring focus, but limited substantive delivery so far.
The company aims to achieve breakeven free cash flow by the end of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was -$3.29 million in 2026-Q1, indicating a negative cash flow position. The company has reiterated its breakeven free cash flow target, but current financials show limited progress.
Why it matters: If healthcare revenue growth speeds up, it may help OrthoPediatrics. This could improve their market position.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth is over 10% compared to last year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth is under 10% compared to last year.
ENTRY INTO OR AMENDMENT OF A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On March 31, 2026, OrthoPediatrics Corp. (the “Company”) and its wholly owned domestic subsidiaries, as borrowers (collectively, the “Credit Parties”), entered into a First Amendment (the “Amendment”) to that certain Credit Agreement and Guaranty (the “Term Loan Agreement”) dated August 5, 2024, by and among the Credit Parties, any additional borrowers from time to time party thereto, any guarantors from time to time party thereto, o…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, OrthoPediatrics Corp. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, providing management's projection of 2026 revenue, EBITDA and break-even cash flow, and making other disclosures. The press release (including the accompanying unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements as of and for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, and other financial data) is furnis…
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. The financial information set forth in this Form 8-K reflects the Company's current preliminary net revenue and free cash flow estimates, is subject to the completi…
“the Company increasing its revenue guidance of $263.0 million to $267.0 million from its prior range.”
“Reiterated full year 2026 revenue guidance to be in a range of $262.0 million to $266.0 million.”
“OrthoPediatrics projects 2026 revenue to be in the range of $262 million to $266 million.”
“expects to generate approximately $25.0 million of adjusted EBITDA for full year 2026, and breakeven free cash flow in 2026.”
“expects to generate approximately $25.0 million of adjusted EBITDA for full year 2026, and breakeven free cash flow in 2026.”