OrthoPediatrics Corp. (KIDS)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$24.50-0.85%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge OrthoPediatrics Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	68.6M
EPS	—	-0.239
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	266.99M
EPS	—	-1.191
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	299.3M
EPS	—	-0.767

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $25 million adjusted EBITDA in FY26	The company targets $25 million adjusted EBITDA in 2026.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA remains negative or below $15 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve breakeven free cash flow in FY26	It plans to reach breakeven free cash flow by year-end.	Improving	Free cash flow remains negative beyond FY26	Free cash flow: $-3.117M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-3,117,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Free cash flow usage improved significantly from $8.4 million used in 2026-Q1 to $3.1 million used in 2026-Q2, a 78% improvement year-over-year. The Company reiterated its goal to achieve breakeven free cash flow in 2026. The trajectory shows meaningful progress but breakeven not yet achieved. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve revenue of $263M to $267M in FY26	A primary condition in OrthoPediatrics Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$265 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $233 million in FY26	Revenue: $70.508M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$265 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202670,508,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9a105550-869b-496e-aba5-41f5da9d2a05. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.77

$-0.81 → $-0.77 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.30B

$0.30B → $0.30B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.81	$296,689,933	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$-0.81	$296,689,933	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$-0.68	$296,523,220	6 / 9
2026-07-27	$-0.81	$296,689,933	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$-0.81	$296,689,933	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$-0.81	$296,689,933	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$-0.68	$296,523,220	6 / 9
2026-07-31	$-0.68	$296,523,220	6 / 9
2026-08-01	$-0.81	$296,689,933	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$-0.68	$296,523,220	6 / 9
2026-08-03	$-0.68	$296,523,220	6 / 9
2026-08-04	$-0.68	$296,523,220	6 / 9
2026-08-05	$-0.74	$297,096,330	5 / 9
2026-08-06	$-0.81	$296,723,267	5 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$298,816,778	4 / 6
2026-08-08	$-0.78	$298,812,330	5 / 9
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$298,816,778	4 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$298,816,778	4 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$298,816,778	4 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$298,816,778	4 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$298,816,778	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$298,816,778	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$298,816,778	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$298,816,778	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$298,816,778	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$298,816,778	4 / 6
2026-08-20	$-0.81	$298,816,744	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$-0.81	$298,817,033	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$-0.82	$298,813,733	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$-0.82	$298,809,000	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$-0.82	$298,820,111	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$-0.82	$298,820,111	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$-0.82	$298,820,111	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$-0.82	$298,820,111	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$-0.82	$298,824,844	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$-0.82	$298,820,111	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$-0.82	$298,820,111	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$-0.82	$298,820,111	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$-0.82	$298,820,111	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$-0.77	$299,297,625	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$-0.77	$299,297,625	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$-0.77	$299,297,625	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$-0.77	$299,297,625	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$-0.77	$299,297,625	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$-0.77	$299,297,625	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$-0.77	$299,297,625	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	1
2026-06-01	8	1
2026-07-01	8	1
2026-08-01	8	1
2026-09-01	8	1
2026-10-01	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $25 million adjusted EBITDA in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve breakeven free cash flow in FY26Free cash flow: $-3.117M
Achieve revenue of $263M to $267M in FY26Revenue: $70.508M

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

OrthoPediatrics Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth business working toward stronger profitability, rather than an established, consistently profitable company. The multi-year view is intact, with management stable and recent guidance raised, but the evidence remains mixed because the company is still loss-making.

What's priced into OrthoPediatrics Corp.

KIDS is described as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in signal is tagged as justified with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so the valuation evidence is not strong enough to make a firm claim about what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has grown 14.4% in the first half of 2026, and full-year guidance now calls for 12% to 14% growth. Adjusted EBITDA improved in the second quarter, while free cash flow use narrowed, but both profitability goals remain unproven for the full year. The main near-term risk is a reversal of recently raised guidance; weakening jobs data could also weigh on cyclical healthcare names.

What OrthoPediatrics Corp. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on delivering the 2026 revenue outlook, reaching about $25 million in adjusted EBITDA, and achieving free-cash-flow breakeven. A guidance cut would damage management credibility, while continued earnings strength from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.