Reading KAI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KAI free→Reading KAI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KAI free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, yet KAI is performing above typical compared to sector peers, and its management is capital-friendly. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether KAI can maintain its earnings momentum and how sector trends evolve. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $295.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $295 KAI trades at 29× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $298 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.65x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.02 → $2.67 (-11.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 63.2% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$182.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$367.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,091.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well Kadant is managing its growth after the acquisition. Strong guidance supports confidence in future earnings.
Confirms:Q2 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $306 million.
Disproves:Q2 revenue guidance falls below $296 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KAI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Kadant Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended April 4, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KAI Kadant Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of voestalpine BÖHLER Profil to enhance growth.
Focus on strategies to enhance revenue growth across the company.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: Q2 earnings will show if revenue growth continues after the recent miss. Investors will focus on this for future growth prospects.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future demand. It shows Kadant's ability to get orders in tough markets.
Confirms:Backlog increases beyond $326 million.
Disproves:Backlog goes down or stays below $326 million.
Why it matters: A steady gross margin shows good cost control despite acquisition costs.
Confirms:Gross margin reported at or above 45% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross margin reported below 45% in Q2.
Why it matters: Organic revenue growth shows how healthy Kadant's main business is. Growth means strong demand beyond buying other companies.
Confirms:Organic revenue growth turns positive after a 1% decline.
Disproves:Organic revenue keeps going down or stays negative.
Why it matters: This acquisition is key to Kadant's growth strategy. Updates will clarify its impact on revenue and operations.
Confirms:Management shares a clear update. The acquisition helps products and boosts revenue.
Disproves:There are no updates. There are also no negative comments about the acquisition's growth impact.
Regulation FD Disclosure. A copy of the press release issued by the Company in connection with the Acquisition is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K and attached hereto as Exhibit 99. The information contained in this Item 7.01 (including Exhibit 99) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing…
Other Events. On April 30, 2026, Kadant Holdings GmbH, a subsidiary of Kadant Inc., (together, “Kadant” or the “Company”) completed its previously announced acquisition of voestalpine BÖHLER Profil GmbH & Co KG and voestalpine BÖHLER Profil VerwaltungsGmbH (together, “voestalpine BÖHLER Profil”) pursuant to a Share Purchase and Transfer Agreement (the “Acquisition Agreement”) by and among voestalpine High Performance Metals GmbH and the Company for the purchase of the shares of voestalpine BÖ…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The reconciliation schedule prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”), which reconciles the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and is included in Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, is incorporated herein by reference into this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, Kadant Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended January 3, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.