Reading JXN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JXN free→Reading JXN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JXN free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, JXN is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 59% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $109.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $110 JXN trades at 5× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $271 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 60% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -18.85x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.89 → $5.47 (-7.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$143.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$367.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,631.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 12% over the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of 12%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for JXN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On June 15, 2026, Jackson Financial Inc. (the “Company”) issued $750 million aggregate principal amount of its 6.150% Senior Notes due 2037 (the “Senior Notes”). The Senior Notes will mature on January 15, 2037. Interest on the Senior Notes accrues at the rate of 6.150% per annum and is payable semi-annually on January 15 and July 15 of each year, commencing July 15, 2026. Prior…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life & Health Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JXN Jackson Financial, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AFL Aflac | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | full | moderate |
MET MetLife | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PRU Prudential Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
PFG Principal Financial Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
The company aims to achieve at least $1.2 billion in Free Cash Flow for the fiscal year 2026.
The company has set a capital return target to common shareholders of $900 million to $1.1 billion for 2026.
The company remains committed to helping Americans achieve financial security throughout 2026.
Why it matters: Continued growth in retail annuity sales shows strong demand for Jackson's products. It is key for revenue.
Confirms:Retail annuity sales grow year over year by more than 31% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Retail annuity sales growth falls below 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows Jackson wants to give cash back to shareholders.
Confirms:Total cash returned to shareholders will be $900 million to $1.1 billion in 2026.
Disproves:Capital return falls below $800 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key to meeting the $1.2B target for 2026. Investors will focus on this number.
Confirms:Q2 free cash flow was over $300M. This shows strong cash generation.
Disproves:Q2 free cash flow reported below $200M, raising concerns about cash generation.
Why it matters: Capital return is a priority. Updates on the $900M-$1.1B target will show financial health.
Confirms:Announcement of a capital return plan that meets or exceeds the $900M target.
Disproves:No updates were given during Q2 earnings. The capital return target is lower.
Why it matters: Sector revenue growth impacts JXN's performance. A drop below median signals trouble.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median of 13% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still above the median. This shows continued strength.
Why it matters: The RBC ratio is a key measure of financial health for insurance companies.
Confirms one read:RBC ratio improves above 554% in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:RBC ratio falls below 500% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Jackson can make cash. It also returns value to shareholders.
Confirms:Free cash flow reaches or exceeds $1.2 billion for the full year 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow falls below $1 billion for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted operating earnings per share show better performance. This means more profit.
Confirms:Adjusted operating earnings per share exceeds $5.94 in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted operating earnings per share falls below $5.15 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims data affects how much people spend. It also impacts financial performance.
Confirms one read:A big drop in claims shows a stronger job market.
Confirms the other:Claims increase, suggesting a weakening job market.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Jackson Financial Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deeme…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 9, 2026, Christopher A. Raub, age 55, became President and Chief Executive Officer of PPM America, Inc. (“PPM”). PPM is a subsidiary of Jackson Financial Inc. (the “Company”). Upon Mr. Raub becoming President and Chief Executive Officer of PPM, Laura L. Prieskorn, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, resumed, as well, the…
Other Events. On March 27, 2026, Jackson Financial Inc. (the “Company” or “JFI”) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), a prospectus supplement (the “Prospectus Supplement”) relating to the resale of up to 4,715,554 shares of JFI’s common stock, $0.01 par value per share (the “Shares”), by the selling securityholder identified in the Prospectus Supplement, or any of its pledgees, donees, assignees and successors-in-interest, or collectively, the permitted transfer…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On March 19, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), pursuant to separate Purchase Agreements among Jackson Financial Inc. (the “Company”), BofA Securities, Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as representatives of the several initial purchasers, and the Trusts (as defined herein), (i) Grand River Funding Trust I, a Delaware statutory trust…