Reading AFL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AFL free→Aflac (AFL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$117.44+0.41%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, AFL is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance - Life
- Market cap
- $59.96B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-30
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $117.44. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$106.96consensus
Range $87.99 – $115.87
vs price: +10% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$98.06consensus
Range $70.14 – $102.28
vs price: +20% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $117 AFL trades at 14× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $112 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $99–$130. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.3x
peer 14.4x · own history 13.7x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
4%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$112.42
range $91.33 – $118.47
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
70th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.63x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
14th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -3.0% / 30d, n=12for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.83 → $1.77 (-3.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 8 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 21% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.4% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · -9.1% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$76.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$169.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $911.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 2026 adjusted earnings per share below $1.75
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, profits may weaken. This could hurt investor trust.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 2026 adjusted earnings per share reported below $1.75.
Disproves:Q2 2026 adjusted earnings per share reported at or above $1.75.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AFL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MET, PRU, and UNM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting AFL and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AFL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AFL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on AFL and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like MET, PRU, and UNM start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping AFL and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2820d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Registered Senior Notes Offering On May 28, 2026, Aflac Incorporated, a Georgia corporation (the “Company”), issued (i) ¥3,100,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 2.117% Senior Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”), (ii) ¥41,800,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 2.802% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”), (iii) ¥13,100,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 3.123% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “2033 Notes”) and (iv) ¥7,900,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 3.482% Senior N…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.