Aflac (AFL)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-10-15

$119.97+1.63%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Aflac’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.55 → 7.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Shareholder confidence and capital allocation	A supporting condition in Aflac's published investment case. The stated target is No further major shareholder sell-offs or capital allocation concerns.	Intact	Significant additional sales by major shareholders	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage data breach impact in Japan	A primary condition in Aflac's published investment case. The stated target is Contain reputational damage and avoid material sales decline.	Under Pressure	Material sales decline or regulatory penalties in Japan due to breach	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS growth near consensus	Analysts expect earnings per share around $7.04 in 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $6.5 per share in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.63 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.0 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20261.63 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1c0f167b-becb-4ffe-aaf5-ed400f0f952e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near consensus	A primary condition in Aflac's published investment case. The stated target is >=-3% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below -6% YoY next year	Revenue growth: -1.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=-3% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-1.033654 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1c0f167b-becb-4ffe-aaf5-ed400f0f952e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.61

$7.55 → $7.61 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$17.23B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.55	$17,228,908,670	14 / 5
2026-07-25	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-07-26	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-07-27	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-07-28	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-07-29	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-07-30	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-07-31	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-01	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-02	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-03	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-04	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-05	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-06	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-07	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-08	$7.56	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-09	$7.56	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-10	$7.56	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-11	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-12	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-13	$7.55	Unavailable	14 / 4
2026-08-14	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-15	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-16	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-17	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-18	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-19	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-20	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-21	$7.56	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-22	$7.56	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-23	$7.57	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-24	$7.57	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-25	$7.57	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-26	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-27	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-28	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-29	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-30	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-31	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-01	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-02	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-03	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-04	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-05	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-06	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-07	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-08	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-09	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-10	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-11	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-12	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-13	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-14	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-15	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-16	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-17	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-18	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-19	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-20	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-21	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-22	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-23	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-24	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-25	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-26	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-27	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-28	$7.55	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-29	$7.56	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-09-30	$7.56	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-10-01	$7.56	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-10-02	$7.56	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-10-03	$7.56	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-10-04	$7.56	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-10-05	$7.56	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-10-06	$7.56	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-10-07	$7.58	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-10-08	$7.58	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-10-09	$7.58	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-10-10	$7.58	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-10-11	$7.58	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-10-12	$7.58	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-10-13	$7.60	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-10-14	$7.61	Unavailable	10 / 4
2026-10-15	$7.61	Unavailable	10 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	8	3
2026-06-01	15	8	3
2026-07-01	16	8	3
2026-08-01	16	8	4
2026-09-01	16	8	4
2026-10-01	3	8	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 6 · prior Jul 8

$124.00 → $125.00+0.8%

$0$68.75$137.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Shareholder confidence and capital allocationDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Manage data breach impact in JapanPublished status: Under Pressure
EPS growth near consensusPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth near consensusRevenue growth: -1.03%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Aflac outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AFL represents a stable investment in the financial sector with a focus on consistent capital returns and product innovation. The current thesis state is intact, but recent earnings misses and litigation have introduced some uncertainty.

What's priced into Aflac

The market appears to be pricing in a stretched valuation with a durable premium compared to peers. There is a moderate expectations gap, suggesting that investors are anticipating some challenges ahead but not fully reflecting the potential for strong execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, supported by strong cash flows and ongoing dividend increases. However, the company faces moderate risk due to its recent earnings misses and the potential for further guidance cuts.

What Aflac hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain strong performance in their third sector products and the overall health of the financial sector. Key factors include the performance of sector peers and any changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policies.