Reading FG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FG free→Reading FG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FG free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is strong, with robust earnings quality indicating that cash backs up reported profits. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, as FG trades below typical levels compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes from FG and trends among sector bellwethers like AFL, MET, and PRU. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 FG trades at 8× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $46 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 38% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted 8.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.97. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$144.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$411.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,089.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: CPI data affects interest rates. It also impacts how much consumers spend. This can change F&G's business.
Confirms one read:CPI goes up more than expected. This shows inflation is rising.
Confirms the other:CPI shows less growth than expected. This suggests inflation is easing.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers: Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On June 16, 2026, F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. (NYSE: FG) (F&G or the Company), a leading provider of insurance solutions serving retail annuity and life customers and institutional clients, announced that Chris Blunt will retire from his current role as Chief Executive Officer of F&G to focus on his roles as a Director of F&G and Chief Executive Offi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life & Health Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FG F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AFL Aflac | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | full | moderate |
MET MetLife | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PRU Prudential Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
PFG Principal Financial Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for the financial sector. A drop signals weakening momentum.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher unemployment may show economic problems. This could hurt F&G's business.
Confirms:The unemployment rate goes up a lot in the report on July 2.
Disproves:The unemployment rate stays the same or goes down in the report on July 2.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact F&G's performance.
Confirms:F&G reports Q2 revenue growth below 13%.
Disproves:F&G reports Q2 revenue growth at or above 13%.
Why it matters: The FOMC's decision on rates can impact F&G's cost of capital and investment strategies.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates. This shows they are tightening monetary policy.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates steady or lowers them, suggesting a more accommodative stance.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement The information set forth in