Reading CNO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNO free→Reading CNO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNO free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is low. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, CNO is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $51.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 CNO trades at 12× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $54 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.80x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.02 → $1.00 (-2.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$78.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$225.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,103.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence fell. The sector backdrop also changed, moving to a headwind. The valuation dimension is now considered expensive. The overall context remains provisional, indicating that further updates may be necessary.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Achieving this target shows CNO is on track to meet its 2026 goals. It reflects strong earnings growth.
Confirms:Q2 operating EPS reported at or above $1.05.
Disproves:Q2 operating EPS was below $1.05.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CNO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3) is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exch…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life & Health Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNO CNO Financial Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | fair | low |
AFL Aflac | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | full | moderate |
MET MetLife | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PRU Prudential Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
PFG Principal Financial Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | low |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
CNO aims to maintain its debt to total capital ratio within the 25% to 28% range.
CNO targets an operating EPS range of $4.25 to $4.45 for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: This ratio shows CNO's financial strength and good management of money.
Confirms:Debt to total capital ratio reported between 25% and 28%.
Disproves:Debt to total capital ratio reported outside the 25%-28% range.
Why it matters: High costs from the TechMod project may hurt profits in the next quarters.
Confirms:TechMod expenses reported at or below $13.7 million in Q2.
Disproves:TechMod costs were over $13.7 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Growth in premiums shows strong sales and demand for CNO's products.
Confirms:Total new annualized premiums grew by more than 10%.
Disproves:Total new annualized premiums grew by less than 10%.
in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3) is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exch…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 10, 2026, Director Mary R. (Nina) Henderson informed the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of CNO Financial Group, Inc. (“CNO” or the “Company”) that she will retire from the Board upon completion of her current term at the 2026 annual meeting of shareholders. Ms. Henderson’s decision to retire and not seek reelection to the Board was no…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 11, 2026, the Company issued a press release to announce that the Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.17 per common share, payable on March 24, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 10, 2026. In addition, the Company announced that its annual meeting of shareholders will be held on May 12, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this