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Abacus Global Management, Inc. (ABX)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$9.76+1.14%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The valuation is based on being priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance - Life
- Market cap
- $919.90M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2020-07-02
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$8.54consensus
Range $7.11 – $13.66
vs price: +14% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$23.16consensus
Range $18.62 – $29.04
vs price: -58% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $9.59 ABX trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $8.44 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.1x
peer 12.4x · own history —
Premium
1.1x peer
Growth the price needs
14%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$8.44
range $7.08 – $13.70
WhyValuation methods disagree
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 14% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
34th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
89th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish6 analysts, 83% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.24 (+0.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$154.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$567.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,979.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q2 2026 EPS falling below $0.24
Why it matters: Earnings per share below this range would signal challenges in meeting growth targets.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 2026 EPS reported at $0.24 or higher.
Disproves:Q2 2026 EPS reported below $0.24.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ABX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like AFL, MET, and PRU keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting ABX and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If ABX reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-07), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on ABX and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like AFL, MET, and PRU start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping ABX and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ABX and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2721d agoItem 8.01
Other Events Closing of Acquisition On May 27, 2026, Abacus Global Management, Inc., (“Abacus” or “Company”) completed its $52.9 million acquisition of an indirect minority position in Manning & Napier, Inc. (the “Transaction”), as previously announced on March 12, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the closing of the Transaction is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8‑K and is incorporated herein by reference.
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.