Reading ABX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The valuation is based on being priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.59 ABX trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $8.44 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.24 (+0.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$154.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$567.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,979.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings per share below this range would signal challenges in meeting growth targets.
Confirms:Q2 2026 EPS reported at $0.24 or higher.
Disproves:Q2 2026 EPS reported below $0.24.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ABX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events Closing of Acquisition On May 27, 2026, Abacus Global Management, Inc., (“Abacus” or “Company”) completed its $52.9 million acquisition of an indirect minority position in Manning & Napier, Inc. (the “Transaction”), as previously announced on March 12, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the closing of the Transaction is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8‑K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life & Health Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ABX Abacus Global Management, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | full | elevated |
AFL Aflac | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | full | moderate |
MET MetLife | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PRU Prudential Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
PFG Principal Financial Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | low |
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve adjusted net income between $96 million and $104 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Management has set a target for Q2 2026 adjusted EPS to be between $0.24 and $0.26.
Management aims for full-year 2026 adjusted EPS to be between $1.00 and $1.05.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could indicate a slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Missing this target would raise worries about making enough money.
Confirms:Adjusted net income reported at $96M or higher.
Disproves:Adjusted net income was below $96M.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Abacus Global Management, Inc. ("Abacus" or "Company") announced the results of its operations and its financial condition for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” with the U.S. Securities and…
Departure of Directors of Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Departure of Certain Officers On April 17, 2026 , William McCauley notified the Abacus Global Management, Inc. (the “Company”) of his decision to resign from his role as Chief Accounting Officer. Mr. McCauley will continue to serve as Chief Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer, director and on the committees of which he is a member until his t…
Departure of Directors of Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Appointment of Chief Operating Officer On March 12, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company appointed William McCauley to be Chief Operating Officer of the Company. This appointment is in addition to Mr. McCauley’s serving as Chief Financial Officer of the Company. Salary Adjustments On March 12, 2026, the Compensation Committee (the “Committee”…
Shareholders approved the Company's 2026 Long-Term Equity Incentive Plan.