Abacus Global Management, Inc. (ABX)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.30-2.47%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Abacus Global Management, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	80.15M
EPS	—	0.302
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	285.82M
EPS	—	1.045
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	337.78M
EPS	—	1.204

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted net income of at least $96M in 2026	Abacus Global Management aims for adjusted net income of $96M-$104M in 2026.	Intact	adjusted net income falls below $96 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve full-year 2026 EPS of at least $1.00	The company targets full-year EPS between $1.00 and $1.05.	Intact	Full-year 2026 EPS falls below $1.00	Diluted EPS: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.00 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20260.07 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 45e12370-a32b-4af9-8cf2-b230be7a3d06. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve Q2 2026 EPS of at least $0.24	A primary condition in Abacus Global Management, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.24 per share.	Intact	Q2 2026 EPS falls below $0.24	Diluted EPS: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.24 per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 10, 20260.07 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 45e12370-a32b-4af9-8cf2-b230be7a3d06. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management issued Q2 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.24 to $0.26. Actual diluted EPS was $0.07 in 2026-Q2, consistent with the guidance framework. The priority is newly emphasized and the trajectory is aligned with management's quarterly EPS guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Successful integration and growth from Manning & Napier minority stake	A supporting condition in Abacus Global Management, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Partnership contributes positively to growth in 2026.	Intact	Partnership fails to contribute to growth or causes setbacks	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$1.14 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.33B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-08-05	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-08-06	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-08-07	$1.14	$325,850,000	5 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	$1.14	$335,743,400	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$1.14	$335,743,400	5 / 5
2026-08-11	$1.14	$337,183,400	5 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-13	$1.13	$340,205,400	5 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	1
2026-06-01	5	1
2026-07-01	5	1
2026-08-01	5	1
2026-09-01	5	1
2026-10-01	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted net income of at least $96M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve full-year 2026 EPS of at least $1.00Diluted EPS: $0.07 per share
Achieve Q2 2026 EPS of at least $0.24Diluted EPS: $0.07 per share
Successful integration and growth from Manning & Napier minority stakeQualitative condition

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Abacus Global Management, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ABX is a smaller-cap Financials business with robust earnings quality and a growth-led long-term thesis. The thesis is on watch: recent performance has lagged its industry cohort, risk is elevated, and confidence has eased to medium.

What's priced into Abacus Global Management, Inc.

ABX trades at a substantial premium to peers, with valuation described as expensive. That premium is tagged as justified by durable business quality, but the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the current evidence supports.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s 2026 adjusted net income goal is on track: guidance rose to $100M-$106M, and first-quarter adjusted net income grew 17% year over year. The picture is mixed, since second-quarter diluted EPS was $0.07 against guidance of $0.24-$0.26; the evidence does not explain the difference. A next-call guidance cut, elevated industry miss risk, or continued sector weakness would add pressure to execution.

What Abacus Global Management, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether ABX sustains its earnings growth and maintains guidance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength from sector peers such as MET, AFL, and PRU could support the Financials backdrop. Rate cuts are another risk, since the evidence says the sector tends to perform better when rates stay high.