Jackson Financial, Inc. (JXN)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-10-23

$130.19-2.35%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Jackson Financial, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	2.08B
EPS	—	7.429
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	8.04B
EPS	—	27.095
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	8.57B
EPS	—	31.63

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital return of $900M to $1.1B to shareholders in 2026	It plans to return $900 million to $1.1 billion to shareholders.	Intact	Capital return falls below $900 million in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital return was $290 million in 2026-Q2, up 34% year-over-year, with a target range of $900 million to $1.1 billion for 2026. The company is on track with capital returns consistent with the stated target range. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Free Cash Flow at or above $1.2 billion in 2026	Jackson aims for $1.2 billion free cash flow in 2026.	Intact	Free Cash Flow falls below $1.2 billion in 2026	Free cash flow: $1.849B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1200000000 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20261,849,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow was $271 million in 2026-Q1 and $287 million in 2026-Q2, with management expecting to be at or above $1.2 billion for the full year 2026. The trajectory is delivering consistent free cash flow generation aligned with the stated target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
PPM America assets under management grow to $93.7 billion by 2025-Q4	PPM America’s assets grew 26% last year.	Intact	PPM America AUM falls below $93.7 billion by 2025-Q4	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. PPM America assets under management grew 21% from $83.5 billion in 2025-Q2 to $101.1 billion in 2026-Q2, reflecting management's focus on expanding asset management capabilities and strategic partnerships. The trajectory is delivering strong growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	3
2026-06-01	1	3
2026-07-01	2	3
2026-08-01	2	2
2026-09-01	2	2
2026-10-01	2	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 8 · prior Oct 7

$150.00 → $151.00+0.7%

$0$83.05$166.10

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital return of $900M to $1.1B to shareholders in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free Cash Flow at or above $1.2 billion in 2026Free cash flow: $1.849B
PPM America assets under management grow to $93.7 billion by 2025-Q4Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Jackson Financial, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a financially sensitive company with some growth and capital-return features, not a clear durable compounder based on the available evidence. The long-term thesis is still unclear: recent performance history is too limited to judge the thesis state, and management execution is rated volatile.

What's priced into Jackson Financial, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure calls JXN cheap versus peers, while another shows a 68% premium versus peers and the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is negative, model confidence is low, and the valuation measure rose recently, so the market’s assumptions are difficult to read with confidence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, free cash flow generation and capital returns are progressing toward management’s 2026 goals, while PPM America assets under management have grown strongly. The latest reported earnings event was positive, but earnings surprises are trending down and the sector backdrop is a headwind; a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk.

What Jackson Financial, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on JXN meeting its full-year free cash flow goal and sustaining asset-management growth and capital returns. Near-term results also hinge on interest rates and sector momentum: rate cuts could weigh on Financials, while continued strong results from sector peers could support the backdrop.