Reading IDYA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IDYA free→Reading IDYA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IDYA free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the capital stance is capital-friendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $30.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $30 IDYA trades at 12× p/s — 1.3× the 9× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $29 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $52–$65. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.61x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.06 → $-1.06 (+0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 11 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$176.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$418.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,710.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "full" to "fair." Risk remained moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is loss-making. Management is neutral.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for the company's future and for investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IDYA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. Underwriting Agreement On June 8, 2026, IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Jefferies LLC, TD Securities (USA) LLC, UBS Securities LLC and Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., as representatives (the “Representatives”) of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell 5,555,556 shares (the “Shares”) of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$52.00 – $65.00 (median $55.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-14
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IDYA Ideaya Biosciences, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Enter a clinical collaboration with Roche to evaluate IDE892 in combination with RG6505 for pancreatic cancer.
Focus on improving operating income, which has been negative in recent quarters.
Aim to increase revenue, which has fluctuated significantly over recent quarters.
Why it matters: This partnership could boost the development of IDE892, a key drug for the company.
Confirms:Positive results from early trials of IDE892 in combination with Roche's RG6505.
Disproves:Negative trial results or delays in the collaboration with Roche.
Other Events. Clinical Collaboration with Roche in MTAP-Deleted RAS-Mutant Pancreatic Cancer On June 3, 2026, IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) announced it has entered into a clinical collaboration with F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd (“Roche”) to evaluate the efficacy and safety of IDE892, its investigational, potential best-in-class PRMT5 inhibitor, in combination with Roche’s RG6505, a pan-RAS inhibitor, in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (“PDAC”) that carry an MTAP deletio…
and the attached Exhibit 99.1 are being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) an automatic shelf registration statement on Form S-3ASR (Registration No. 333-295560) (the “New Registration Statement”) to replace its existing automatic shelf registration statement on Form S-3 (Registration No. 333-272936) filed with the SEC on June 26, 2023 (the “Prior Registration Statement”), which was scheduled to expire on June 26, 2026 pursuant to Rule…
Other Events. On April 8, 2026, IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a clinical collaboration agreement with AstraZeneca plc (“AstraZeneca”) to evaluate the efficacy and safety of IDE849, the Company’s investigational, potential first-in-class DLL3 TOP1 antibody-drug conjugate, in combination with AstraZeneca’s Imfinzi ® (durvalumab), a programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) inhibitor, in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (“SCLC”). The Company will sponsor the clinical combin…