Ideaya Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$34.71-3.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ideaya Biosciences, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	18.48M
EPS	—	-1.12
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	40.07M
EPS	—	-4.605
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	118.32M
EPS	—	-4.225

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain and advance clinical collaboration with Roche	Ideaya has strong clinical partnerships with Roche and AstraZeneca.	Intact	Clinical collaboration with Roche stalls or is discontinued	Qualitative: Active collaboration confirmed June 2026 headlines confirm new Roche clinical collaboration for IDE892 in pancreatic cancer, reinforcing the driver. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management announced a clinical collaboration with Roche to initiate a Phase 1 combination trial of IDE892 with RG6505 in MTAP-deleted, RAS-mutant pancreatic cancer in the second half of 2026. This is a new strategic collaboration with planned trial initiation consistent with management's timeline, indicating delivery on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve operating income from negative $108.5M in 2026-Q1	The company aims to improve operating income from negative $108.5M in 2026-Q1.	Under Pressure	Operating income worsens beyond -$108.5M or remains deeply negative	Operating income: $-122.291M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves toward breakeven or less negative levels. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-122,291,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 69934c49-5c4d-41cc-903d-9b37a9e20b81. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating expenses increased from $115.1 million in 2026-Q1 to $131.1 million in 2026-Q2 driven by higher clinical trial and personnel costs. Net loss increased from $98.5 million to $112.5 million over the same period. The trajectory shows increased expenses consistent with advancing clinical programs, indicating limited progress on improving operating income so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase revenue from $6.56M in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in Ideaya Biosciences, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth stabilizes or improves above $6.56M quarterly.	Intact	Revenue declines below $6.56M or continues steep downward trend	Revenue: $8.857M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth stabilizes or improves above $6.56M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20268,857,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 69934c49-5c4d-41cc-903d-9b37a9e20b81. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-4.23

$-3.65 → $-4.23 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.12B

$0.12B → $0.12B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-3.65	$116,676,340	14 / 15
2026-07-25	$-3.68	$117,010,943	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$-3.64	$114,558,150	13 / 14
2026-07-27	$-3.67	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$-3.64	$114,558,150	13 / 14
2026-07-29	$-3.64	$114,558,150	13 / 14
2026-07-30	$-3.67	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-07-31	$-3.64	$114,558,150	13 / 14
2026-08-01	$-3.67	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-02	$-3.67	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-03	$-3.62	$114,558,150	13 / 14
2026-08-04	$-3.62	$114,558,150	13 / 14
2026-08-05	$-3.65	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$-3.62	$114,558,150	13 / 14
2026-08-07	$-3.65	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-08	$-3.65	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-09	$-3.77	$116,604,150	13 / 14
2026-08-10	$-3.65	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$-4.11	$115,491,080	13 / 14
2026-08-13	$-3.65	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$-3.65	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-15	$-3.65	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-16	$-3.65	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-17	$-3.65	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-18	$-3.65	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-19	$-3.65	$114,916,654	10 / 10
2026-08-20	$-4.11	$115,491,084	10 / 10
2026-08-21	$-4.13	$115,491,013	10 / 10
2026-08-22	$-4.13	$115,491,013	10 / 10
2026-08-23	$-4.13	$115,491,013	10 / 10
2026-08-24	$-4.13	$115,491,013	10 / 10
2026-08-25	$-4.13	$115,491,013	10 / 10
2026-08-26	$-4.13	$115,491,013	10 / 10
2026-08-27	$-4.13	$115,491,013	10 / 10
2026-08-28	$-4.13	$115,491,013	10 / 10
2026-08-29	$-4.13	$115,491,013	10 / 10
2026-08-30	$-4.13	$115,491,013	10 / 10
2026-08-31	$-4.13	$115,491,013	10 / 10
2026-09-01	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-02	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-03	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-04	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-05	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-06	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-07	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-08	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-09	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-10	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-11	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-12	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-13	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-14	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-15	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-16	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-17	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-18	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-19	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-20	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-21	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-22	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-23	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-24	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-25	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-26	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-27	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-28	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-29	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-09-30	$-4.13	$115,516,084	10 / 10
2026-10-01	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-02	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-03	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$-4.04	$119,786,552	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$-4.14	$117,876,798	9 / 9
2026-10-16	$-4.14	$117,876,798	10 / 10
2026-10-17	$-4.14	$117,876,798	10 / 10
2026-10-18	$-4.23	$116,446,292	11 / 11
2026-10-19	$-4.23	$116,446,292	11 / 11
2026-10-20	$-4.23	$116,446,292	11 / 11
2026-10-21	$-4.23	$118,318,345	11 / 11
2026-10-22	$-4.23	$118,318,345	11 / 11
2026-10-23	$-4.23	$118,318,345	11 / 11
2026-10-24	$-4.23	$118,318,345	11 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	2
2026-06-01	16	2
2026-07-01	14	2
2026-08-01	14	1
2026-09-01	14	1
2026-10-01	15	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve operating income from negative $108.5M in 2026-Q1Published status: Under Pressure
Increase revenue from $6.56M in 2026-Q1Revenue: $8.857M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ideaya Biosciences, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology business, not a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is intact and has recently shifted to mildly favorable, but the evidence is mixed and confidence is medium.

What's priced into Ideaya Biosciences, Inc.

IDYA trades at a durable premium of about 1.5 times its peers, while the model’s confidence is low. The expectations gap is 0.35 and is tagged unjustified, suggesting the premium is not well supported by the current evidence; no fragility gates were triggered.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the company remains loss-making and has a run of earnings misses, so the next report carries meaningful execution risk. Over the multi-year view, darovasertib’s trial met its primary endpoint and its NDA filing is on track for completion in the second half of 2026, while collaboration revenue rose from $6.6 million to $8.9 million between the first and second quarters of 2026.

What Ideaya Biosciences, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on completing the darovasertib NDA filing on schedule and advancing clinical collaborations, including the planned Roche trial in the second half of 2026. A guidance cut would add a negative signal, while continued strength from healthcare peers could support sector momentum; weakening jobs data may increase concern about cyclical weakness.