Reading HRTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HRTX free→Reading HRTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HRTX free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, HRTX is performing at a typical level. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.66x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.02 (-100.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$274.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$543.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,206.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HRTX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on December 11, 2023, Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (“Company”) received a Paragraph IV notice of certification (the “Slayback Notice”) from Slayback Pharma LLC (“Slayback”) (now owned by Azurity Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“Azurity”)) advising that Slayback had submitted a new drug application (“NDA”) under Section 505(b)(2) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act to the FDA seeking approval to manufacture, use or sell a generic version of CINVANTI ® in the U…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HRTX Heron Therapeutics, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | — | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Heron Therapeutics aims to achieve its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $173-$183 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $34.7 million in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the full-year guidance of $173-$183 million. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the target.
“The Company reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of net revenue of $173–$183 million.”
“Issues Full-Year 2026 Net Revenue Guidance of $173 to $183 Million.”
Heron Therapeutics aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA of $10-$20 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The financials do not provide specific EBITDA figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress towards the $10-$20 million target. The trajectory remains unclear.
“Adjusted EBITDA of $10 million to $20 million for 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA of $10 to $20 Million.”
Heron Therapeutics is focused on improving its operating income over the coming quarters.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating income was -$4.8 million in 2026-Q1, a decline from $38,000 in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows a negative trend, indicating challenges in improving operating income.
and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Collard Amendment On April 3, 2026 (the “Collard Amendment Effective Date”), Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) and Craig Collard, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, entered into an amendment and restatement (the “Collard Amendment”) of that certain Employment Agreement, dated as of April 3, 2023 (as amended, the “Collard Agreement”), in…
and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
“Operating income was -$4.8 million in 2026-Q1.”