Reading HRMY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HRMY free→Reading HRMY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HRMY free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 54% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact HRMY's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 HRMY trades at 11× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $75 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 54% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.14 → $1.10 (-3.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$138.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$344.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,449.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Harmony. A drop below 10% signals trouble in the sector.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays at or above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HRMY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HRMY Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to drive revenue growth with a focus on achieving 2026 guidance.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Increase cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance is key for investor trust. It shows the business is stable.
Confirms one read:The company confirms Q2 2026 revenue guidance of over $1 billion.
Confirms the other:The company revises down its Q2 2026 revenue guidance below $1 billion.
Why it matters: The result could affect WAKIX's market position. It may also change revenue from pitolisant.
Confirms:The lawsuit against AET Pharma/Sandoz ends with a good ruling for Harmony.
Disproves:The lawsuit ends with a ruling against Harmony. This affects its IP strategy.
Why it matters: More cash from operations means better financial health. It supports growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up from the last quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations decreases or stays the same compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important. It shows the company is managing costs well.
Confirms:Operating income goes up each quarter.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same each quarter.
Why it matters: This submission is key to expanding the pitolisant franchise and could drive future sales growth.
Confirms:The company submits the NDA for Pitolisant GR in Q2 2026 as planned.
Disproves:The NDA submission for Pitolisant GR is delayed beyond Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Good data could show BP-205 as a top therapy. This could help future growth.
Confirms:The company reports positive Phase 1 clinical PK data for BP-205 in mid-2026.
Disproves:The Phase 1 data for BP-205 shows unfavorable results or delays.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of Chief Financial Officer On April 14, 2026, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Sandip Kapadia, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, will be stepping down as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer effective as of April 14, 2026 to pursue other career opportunities. In connection with his departure from t…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Chief Operating Officer; Resignation of Director On April 2, 2026, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) named Peter Anastasiou the Company’s Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer (“COO”), effective April 2, 2026. In connection with his appointment as COO, on April 2, 2026, Mr. Anastasiou provided n…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 23, 2025, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary net product revenue for the third quarter of 2025. In addition, the Company provided updated guidance related to 2025 net product revenue. A copy of this press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference . Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain state…