Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.13+0.28%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+3.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.28 → 4.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	281.79M
EPS	—	1.058
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1B–$1.04B	1.03B
EPS	—	3.949
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.17B
EPS	—	4.44

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations stays near or above $27.8 million	Cash flow is positive and supports growth.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $25 million next year	Cash from operations: $92.432M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $27.8 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202692,432,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable profit margins near current levels	Profit margins are stable with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3, cheaper than peers.	Intact	Operating income falls below $30 million next year	Operating income: $89.316M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near Q1 2026 levels. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202689,316,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 44289a7e-cad5-4988-b447-bdc5b35db3d6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $1.02 billion in 2026	Harmony grows revenue about 18% yearly, aiming for $1.02 billion in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1 billion in FY26	Revenue: $261.28M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.02 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026261,280,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 44289a7e-cad5-4988-b447-bdc5b35db3d6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.44

Unavailable → $4.44 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.17B

$1.16B → $1.17B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,156,998,060	3 / 11
2026-07-25	$4.22	$1,155,616,244	6 / 8
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,165,289,870	3 / 10
2026-07-27	$4.16	$1,165,289,869	6 / 8
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,165,289,870	3 / 10
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,165,289,870	3 / 10
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,165,289,870	3 / 10
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,165,289,870	3 / 10
2026-08-01	$4.16	$1,165,289,869	6 / 8
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,166,459,870	3 / 10
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,166,459,870	3 / 10
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,166,459,870	3 / 10
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,166,459,870	3 / 10
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,166,459,870	3 / 10
2026-08-07	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 7
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,163,857,210	2 / 9
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,163,857,210	2 / 9
2026-08-10	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,167,951,490	2 / 10
2026-08-13	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$4.18	$1,167,951,488	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$4.28	$1,165,155,898	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$4.28	$1,165,155,898	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$4.28	$1,165,155,898	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$4.28	$1,165,155,898	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$4.28	$1,165,155,898	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$4.28	$1,160,961,080	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$4.32	$1,165,071,570	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$4.44	$1,166,415,606	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$4.44	$1,166,415,606	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$4.44	$1,166,415,606	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$4.44	$1,166,415,606	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$4.44	$1,166,415,606	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$4.44	$1,166,415,606	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$4.44	$1,166,415,606	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$4.44	$1,166,415,606	6 / 9
2026-10-24	$4.44	$1,166,415,606	6 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	4	1
2026-06-01	6	4	1
2026-07-01	6	4	1
2026-08-01	7	3	1
2026-09-01	7	3	1
2026-10-01	8	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Deutsche BankOct 1 · prior Aug 5

$39.00 → $42.00+7.7%

$0$23.10$46.20

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations stays near or above $27.8 millionCash from operations: $92.432M
Maintain stable profit margins near current levelsOperating income: $89.316M
Revenue reaches about $1.02 billion in 2026Revenue: $261.28M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented healthcare business whose thesis depends on WAKIX and the development pipeline, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance holding in the top half of its industry, though confidence is medium and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.

The evidence describes HRMY as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a 47% premium versus peers and has low confidence, so the valuation signal is mixed. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility; the evidence does not show a clear gap between market expectations and fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: WAKIX net revenue rose 30% year over year in 2026-Q2, and management reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance. The next report carries meaningful uncertainty, given the high-miss-rate industry and recent peer misses; CEO and CFO transitions also add change, though their effects are not detailed in the evidence.

What Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. hinges on

Over the multi-year view, execution depends on meeting WAKIX revenue goals and protecting pitolisant exclusivity amid ongoing patent litigation. Pipeline progress is another swing factor, with EPX-100 topline data expected in the first half of 2027 and BP-205 Phase 2 trials planned for mid-2027; near-term guidance and broader healthcare-sector conditions also matter.